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posted on 24 July 2016

Global Demographic Trends Shape Policy Environment

from the Dallas Fed

-- this post authored by Mark A. Wynne

Demographics are key determinants of what is economically feasible at both the global and national levels. Demographics also have important implications for monetary policy. Slower population and labor force growth in the coming decades will have a depressing effect on real interest rates.

Demographics will fundamentally affect the environment in which monetary policy is made over the next decade. The global population is expected to increase to 11.2 billion by the end of this century based on current trends, with essentially all of this growth occurring in the so-called developing regions of the world and none in the industrial regions (Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and Japan).

The global population stood at 7.3 billion in 2015, roughly three times the 1950 population of 2.5 billion, according to United Nations estimates published last year.1 The 17 percent of the population living in advanced economies in 2015 will decline to a bit less than 12 percent, or one-eighth, of global residents by 2099. These same economies accounted for just under one-third of the world population in 1950.

In short, Asia and Africa are where the demographic action will be over the next 100 years.

[click on image below to continue reading]

Source: documents/ research/ eclett/ 2016/ el1607.pdf

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