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posted on 22 July 2016

Early Headlines: Tim Kaine VP Pick, Trump And Clinton Near Even, Global Trade Trending Down, DNC Targeted Sanders, France Heavy Arms To Iraq, Shooter Kills 9 In Munich, IMF Raises China Growth Forecast And More

Written by Econintersect

Early Bird Headlines 23 July 2016

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Global

  • Years of painfully slow growth slashed in one fell swoop! (Wolf Street) Hat tip to Keith Jurow. The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its Merchandise World Trade Monitor for May. It was, in its own right, not very uplifting. But with extensive backward revision the latest data indicates that global trade has actually reached a plateau over the past 6 months and since last October is actually formed a downtrend.

U.S.

  • Hillary Clinton chooses Va. Sen. Tim Kaine as running mate (Associated Press) Hillary Clinton named Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine as her vice presidential running mate Friday, adding a centrist former governor of a crucial battleground state to the Democratic ticket. Clinton's decision caps a highly secretive, months-long process to find a political partner. It's also the final puzzle piece for the general election, pitting Clinton and Kaine against Republican Donald Trump and running mate Mike Pence, the Indiana governor. See Tim Kaine: Everything You Need to Know (ABC News)

  • Trump pulls nearly even with Clinton after Republican convention: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters) Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has pulled nearly even with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton for the first time since May, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken over the course of the Republican National Convention in Cleveland this week. The July 18-22 national online poll found that 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, while 38 percent supported Trump. Given the poll's credibility interval of about 4 percentage points, Trump and Clinton should be considered to be about even in the race. Just before Republicans opened the convention on Monday, Trump had trailed Clinton by nearly 10 percentage points in the poll. Econintersect: These nationa; polls are not very useful. See Why National Polls Mean Little In U.S. Presidential Elections.

  • Va. Supreme Court strikes down restored voting rights for felons (The Hill) The Virginia Supreme Court struck down Gov. Terry McAuliffe's (D) move to restore voting rights for over 200,000 convicted felons on Friday. The 4-3 ruling came a month after Republicans in the state sued McAuliffe, saying that he overstepped his authority in issuing the executive action. "The unprecedented scope, magnitude, and categorical nature of Governor McAuliffe's Executive Order" exceeded his authority, wrote Chief Justice Donald W. Lemons in the decision. Republicans argued that the move would also disproportionately favor Democrats like presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton.

  • Leaked DNC emails reveal secret plans to take on Sanders (The Hill) Top officials at the Democratic National Committee (DNC) privately planned how to undermine Bernie Sanders presidential campaign, according to a trove of emails released by WikiLeaks on Friday. The Sanders campaign had long claimed the DNC and Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz had tipped the scales in favor of Hillary Clinton during the party's presidential primary. The email release will reignite that controversy just days before Democrats gather in Philadelphia for their convention to officially nominate Clinton for president.

UK

France

  • France president pledges to send heavy weapons to Iraqi army next month (Xinhuanet) France will send artillery to Iraqi army as soon as next month to support local forces in their battle against the Islamic State (IS) insurgents, French President Francois Hollande announced on Friday. Speaking after hosting a security meeting, the French president also pledged to send Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the region by the end of September.

Germany

  • German-Iranian gunman kills at least nine in Munich shopping mall (Reuters) A 18-year-old German-Iranian gunman who apparently acted alone opened fire in a busy shopping mall in Munich on Friday evening, killing at least nine people in the third attack against civilians in Western Europe in eight days. The pistol-wielding attacker, identified by Munich Police Chief Hubertus Andrae as a dual national, was later found dead of an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound to his head. Police, citing eyewitness accounts, had initially said they were looking for up to three suspects in the shooting attack at the Munich Olympia Shopping Centre that sent shoppers fleeing in panic and shut traffic across the city. But authorities told a news conference early on Saturday the shooter was believed to have staged the attack alone, opening fire in a fast food restaurant before moving on to the mall. Sixteen people, including several children, were injured in the attack and three were in critical condition, Andrae said.

Turkey

  • Turkey coup attempt: Detentions 'tip of the iceberg' (BBC News) Turkey's deputy prime minister has described as "the tip of the iceberg" the infiltration of state institutions by the group the government blames for last Friday's failed coup. Nurettin Canikli told the BBC that the number of arrests could grow. At least 60,000 state employees have been detained or suspended in an internationally criticised purge. The government accuses those loyal to the US-based exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen of orchestrating the coup. Mr Gulen has denied any involvement.

Philippines

  • Philippines' oil still in troubled waters after South China Sea ruling (Asia Times) The Philippines, eager to resume development of vital oil and gas reserves off its coast, will likely need to reach an accord with a Chinese government infuriated by last week's ruling that granted Manila a big victory in the South China Sea. The Philippines relies overwhelmingly on imports to fuel its fast-growing economy. That reliance will grow further in a few years when the main source of domestic natural gas runs out, so the clock is ticking for it to develop offshore fields that China shows no sign of loosening its grip on. Beijing has refused to recognize the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration that granted the Philippines sovereign rights to access offshore oil and gas fields, including the Reed Bank, a shallow tablemount some 85 nautical miles off its coast.

Japan

  • Yen Drops to 6-Week Low, Dollar Steadies (Daily Forex) The yen bounced back to 105.88 yen per dollar from 107.49 Friday hovering above six-week lows after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda hinted that Japan may not be preparing a radical "helicopter money" economic stimulus as anticipated. Helicopter money is essentially a policy of injecting cash directly to the economy in some form by printing money. Kuroda's made his comments on a BBC Radio 4 interview on Thursday after speculation ran rampant that the BOJ could be financing the additional spending following Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announcement that he was crafting a massive spending package worth about $190 billion to bolster the economy. Expectations that the BOJ will adopt easing steps at its policy meeting on Friday next week remained strong. Econintersect: But helicopter money is being talked about: Helicopters Are Coming.

China

A Chinese central bank official said tax cuts would be a more effective way of stimulating the economy than interest rate cuts, as companies are still unwilling to invest, the National Business Daily reported on Friday.

Sheng Songcheng, director of the Survey and Statistics Department at the People's Bank of China, said companies were caught in a liquidity trap and regulators should focus more on fiscal policy adjustments, the paper said.

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