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posted on 21 July 2016

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mostly Up, Cruz Booed Off Stage, Trump Will Purge Gov, Visium Capital Collapse, New UK Gov To Follow BoE Lead, India Inflation Easing And More

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Early Bird Headlines 21 July 2016

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Global

asia.pac.2016.jul.21

  • In China meeting, G20 has chance to soothe post-Brexit jitters (Reuters) Finance heads from the world's leading economies will confront fresh fears about protectionism when they meet in China this weekend, with Brexit fallout and dwindling policy options to boost global growth expected to dominate talks. The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting will put the spotlight on Britain's new Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, who makes his international debut at the gathering and will need to answer questions about how London will manage its exit from Europe. Also overhanging the G20 meeting in the southwestern city of Chengdu will be Donald Trump's U.S. Presidential campaign in which protectionist themes are expected to be central, after his official nomination as the 2016 Republican candidate this week.

U.S.

  • Cruz Booed Off Stage After Withholding Endorsement of Trump (Bloomberg) Ted Cruz was booed off the stage at the Republican convention after he failed to directly endorse the man who dubbed him "Lyin' Ted". Heidi Cruz, Cruz's wife, was hurriedly ushered out of the arena as the crowd turned ugly, with some Trump supporters chanting "Goldman Sachs" at a figure who formerly held a senior job at the securities firm. The Texas senator congratulated Trump in his prime-time speech, but only mentioned his name once and ignored calls from convention delegates to explicitly back the nominee.

  • Exclusive: Trump could seek new law to purge government of Obama appointees (Reuters) If he wins the presidency, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would seek to purge the federal government of officials appointed by Democratic President Barack Obama and could ask Congress to pass legislation making it easier to fire public workers, Trump ally, Chris Christie, said on Tuesday. Christie, who is governor of New Jersey and leads Trump's White House transition team, said the campaign was drawing up a list of federal government employees to fire if Trump defeats Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election. "As you know from his other career, Donald likes to fire people," Christie told a closed-door meeting with dozens of donors at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, according to an audio recording obtained by Reuters and two participants in the meeting.

  • Lessons in Bond Math: Less Than 1% Chance U.S. Yields Reach 1.1% (Bloomberg) In the U.S. bond market, trying to call a bottom in yields has proven to be a veritable minefield. Time and again, prognosticators across Wall Street have had to go back to the drawing board as the insatiable demand for Treasuries upended their understanding of just how low yields can go. Now, Societe Generale SA is one of the latest to try a different approach in an attempt to come up with the right formula. Its bond team recently tweaked a longstanding macro model to incorporate two decades of bond prices from Europe, Japan and the U.K. Based on that new model and statistical norms, there's less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1 percent, especially as the Federal Reserve moves to raise interest rates.

10yearspread.fair.value.2016.jul.18

  • Inside the High-Profile Downfall of a $8 Billion Hedge Fund (Bloomberg) The end of Visium Capital is filled with questions. Interviews with a dozen investors and former employees portray a company that was built on the cheap, with tight limits on compensation, and compliance that was at times lacking. Gottlieb, who had ambitions to build a firm rivaling the biggest hedge funds, all but shuttered Visium last month when the federal government accused three traders of securities fraud.

UK

  • UPDATE 2-New UK finance minister Hammond says BoE to move first on Brexit response (Reuters, CNBC) The new government will have monetary policy take the lead to start off their administration. British finance minister Philip Hammond said on Tuesday the Bank of England would take the first steps to help steer the economy through its Brexit shock, and possible budget measures would not come until later this year. Hammond, who was named as chancellor of the exchequer by Prime Minister Theresa May last week, also declined to confirm whether he would follow through on his predecessor George Osborne's plan to make further cuts to corporation tax.

  • Four scenarios: how Brexit process could unfold (Financial Times) This article presents four scenarios: a hostile divorce, a clean break, an amicable transition and a change of heart, in which Brexit is averted. See also 10 ways to leave EU lover; scenarios for Brexit (Reuters).

India

  • IMF cuts India's growth projections slightly (Business Standard) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has marginally scaled down India's economic growth projections by 0.1 percentage point to 7.4% each for the current financial year and 2017-18, due to a slower investment revival than expected earlier.

  • Expect 50 bps cut in policy rate by March: Morgan Stanley (The Economic Times) Inflation in India is expected to fall to 4.5 per cent by next March, giving the Reserve Bank space to cut key policy rates by 50 basis points in the current fiscal, says a Morgan Stanley report. According to the global financial services major, disinflationary pressures would keep the RBI on an easing path. "We expect a 50 bps cut in the policy rate by quarter ended March 2017," Morgan Stanley said in a research note. In the June monetary policy review, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept interest rates intact, citing rising inflationary pressure, but hinted at a reduction later this year if good monsoon helps ease inflation. The report further noted that inflation is expected to fall to 4.5% by quarter ended March 2017.

  • US companies consider India their next FDI frontier: Nitin Gadkari (Business Standard) US companies consider India their next FDI frontier and are keen to pump in billions of dollars into the country's infrastructure and transportation sector, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari has said. Acknowledging that India's infrastructure sector is lagging behind and it has a long way to go to match the international standards, Gadkari said that the modernization and upgradation of the transport infrastructure has the potential to become driver of the country's growth. Road Transport and Highways Minister Gadkari told PTI as he concluded his week-long trip to the US that took him to Washington, New York, St Louis, San Francisco and Los Angeles:

"There is overwhelming enthusiasm among American companies and investors to invest in India. Results could be seen soon."

South Korea

  • [Monitor] Korea's exports to China dip for 12th month straight (The Korea Herald) South Korean exports to China fell 9.4% on-year last month, marking the 12th straight month of decline, the Korea International Trade Association said Wednesday. Shipments to China grappling with slow growth amounted to $10.2 billion in June, compared with $11.3 billion for the same month last year.

kprea.trade.w.china.2015.2016.july.18

China

  • Chinese Private Equity Funds Are Taking on the World's Giants (Bloomberg) China's PE industry is expanding globally at an unprecedented pace, putting firms like AGIC, Legend Capital and Golden Brick Capital in competition with European and U.S. counterparts like never before. Fueled by China's growing wealth, investor sophistication and desire to gain exposure to overseas assets, homegrown funds have taken part in at least $16.4 billion of cross-border deals so far this year, exceeding the previous annual record of $11 billion in 2012, according to Asian Venture Capital Journal.

Taiwan

  • Export orders beat government forecast (Taipei Times) The nation's export orders fell 2.4% year-on-year to US$35.7 billion last month, better than the government's estimate of a 6.23% annual drop, as demand for notebook computers and semiconductor products picked up, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. The results marked the 15th consecutive month of annual declines in orders, but the scale of the fall was less than the previous 14 months, ministry data showed. Last month's orders grew 5.9% from the US$33.73 billion recorded in May

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