Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
Futures imply S&P, Nasdaq to open down 5% after UK votes to leave EU (CNBC) U.S. stock index futures dipped sharply lower Thursday evening ET as results from the British referendum continued to roll in. Dow Jones futures briefly saw an implied open down more than 400 points. After paring those losses briefly, futures then broke below an implied open down more than 700 around 12:35 a.m. ET (5:35 a.m. London time). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, meanwhile, were implied by futures to open down more than 5%. The FTSE futures also extended their losses, pointing to a roughly 8% fall at the U.K. stock market open. Gary will have more later in GEI's Pre-Market Commentary.
Trump Odds Explode 8% Overnight (National Inflation Association) Bookmakers took a bath on Brexit as odds of Brexit passage went from 10% when the polls opened to 100% as the votes started to be reported. Now they are trying to recoup as odds on Donald Trump becoming president have moved from 28% to 36% in the same few hours. Global anti-establishment wave is rising.
Bakken Update: Eagle Ford Hedges May Provide Downward Oil Price Pressures (Talk Markets) The current ceiling could be tough to break, as commodities love whole numbers.$50/bbl could be significant for other reasons, as it is a level that incentivizes operators to lock in revenues. But many operators cannot make it at these levels so there may be some producers in trouble. However, the author writes:
There are a host of reasons to be bearish, but we mainly focus on world inventories. It could take a while before we see more normal levels, but supply disruptions have been positive. Nigeria and Canada have seen production decrease significantly. Goldman (GS) believes we moved to a supply deficit in May. This isn't surprising, given the decreases in the US, OPEC and Brazil. The main questions surround the transient nature of disruptions, and a refinery maintenance season the could cause inventories to increase substantially.It looks like Nigerian production could take a while to bring back on line, but Canada is already beginning to recover from its wildfires.Demand for refined product has been much better than expectations, and we continue to believe current estimates are still below reality.It is important to watch crack spreads.Refiners are already talking about a tightening.This could continue, as refineries have been very active in this low oil price environment.
Brexit: Europe's new nationalism is here to stay(The Conversation) Euroscepticism is found on the extremes of the political spectrum. On the left, voters and parties see the EU as a neoliberal plot. It exists only to serve the big businesses that lobby in Brussels for favorable legislation. For the right, the EU is a bureaucratic behemoth that imposes excessive regulation and threatens ancient national identities by encouraging labor migration. When these two viewpoints merge, as they have in UKIP's (UK Independence Party) political base, they are powerfully toxic:
So, unless significant domestic economic and social reforms can tackle the sharpening divisions upon which this populist nationalism is founded, it will persist for the foreseeable future.
And unless the EU can infuse its institutions with greater democratic legitimacy, it will continue to draw populist ire. Voters need to be able to identify with the people who make decisions on their behalf.
The UK may be the first country to leave the EU but it may not be the last. Europe's new nationalism is here to stay.
What Now? Brexit Win Sets Stage for Two Years of Bitter Talks (Bloomberg) Exit negotiations start as soon as Cameron tells the bloc's other leaders he's triggering the secession process under Article 50 of the EU treaty. Most leaders will want him to do that as soon as possible -- perhaps even at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on June 28 -- but British lawmakers may urge him to delay for several weeks or months to give them time to work out the way forward. Either way, the other national leaders will want to know what sort of relationship the U.K. wants to have with the EU. Before then, there may be an emergency meeting of finance ministers over the weekend.
Britain has voted to leave the EU - what happens next? (The Guardian) The UK's historic decision to end its 43-year love-hate relationship with the European Union represents a turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century. On the assumption there is no turning back, or collective buyer's remorse, Britain will live with the political, constitutional, diplomatic and economic consequences for a decade or more. The long-term consequences of a leave vote will be seismic, but nothing will change immediately.
Britain votes to leave the EU, here's what happens next(The Conversation) Legally speaking, though, the process of actually leaving will take a lot longer. Britain will now enter a kind of phoney Brexit period. It is still a member of the EU. The referendum vote is not as such legally binding. It is advisory only - but if it is out it creates a political imperative for the UK government to arrange its exit of the EU. The law governing Brexit is found in Article 50 of the EU Treaty. Article 50 requires the UK to trigger the exit process by notifying its intention to withdraw. Not one, but rather a cascade of agreements, will follow this Brexit notification, and must be completed within two years:
The Article 50 exit agreement
A separate treaty governing the UK's future relationship with the EU - which could take many years to negotiate (and which, if it goes beyond trade, will require ratification by every single EU member state)
Trade agreements between the UK and up to 134 other WTO members
A tidying-up treaty between all the remaining EU states that removes all references to the UK from the EU treaties.
Brexit would provide some much needed clarity compared to the current "in-out" of Britain's position on the Euro and the Schengen area of free movement. Brexit could even stop the danger of having a two-speed Europe, a Europe a la carte, that actually plays into the hands of eurosceptics. If the UK remains in the EU, other member states may be tempted to ask for the same kind of deal as the one that Cameron secured. This is a major threat to the EU's consistency.
Those advocating for Britain to remain in the EU should be worried about this slow destruction of the European ideal. This would be a first victory for the eurosceptics who would then have a clear path to destroy the EU by arguing that the bloc can't deal with the problems of terrorism, migration and unemployment. As a result, Brexit may actually be the best solution for pursuing European integration.
"This outcome tonight dramatically changes the political landscape here in the north of Ireland and we will be intensifying our case for the calling of a border poll. The British government as a direct result have forfeited any mandate to represent the interests of people here in the north of Ireland in circumstances where the north is dragged out of Europe as a result of a vote to leave."
China's a Brexit Shelter (Bloomberg) Where can equity investors take shelter from this gathering Brexit storm? Well, George Soros and Kyle Bass will be disappointed to learn that China would have been their best bet. While by noon in Hong Kong most markets that were trading showed losses ranging from 3% to 6% on Brexit, the Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 was down about 1%, outperforming everything else that is considered a risky asset.
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