Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.
GTM Research predicts 2016 market declines in China and Japan as India and the U.S. boom (PV Magazine) Hat tip to Sanjeev Kulkarni. The markets being assessed are solar energy. GTM Research is expecting a slowdown in what were the two largest solar markets in 2015, as stated in its recently released Q2 2016 Global Solar Demand Monitor. The company predicts that the Chinese market will decline 5% this year, citing an 11% reduction in feed-in tariff levels and high rates of curtailment. Additionally, it expects the Japanese market to contract 12%, due to cuts to that nation's feed-in tariff. Despite these modest declines, the report is predicting much bigger gains in two other leading markets: India and the United States. GTM Research expects the U.S. market to grow 120% in 2016, due to a boom in projects which were scheduled for completion before the expiration of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit (ITC), which has since been extended. Additionally, the company expects 127% growth in India's market this year, citing a "massive" pipeline of projects which have been awarded power contracts in auctions. Together, these four markets are expected to make up 73% of total global demand in 2016.
Why investors may need to lower their sights (McKinsey) Hat tip to Sig Silber. The forces that have driven exceptional investment returns over the past 30 years are weakening, and even reversing. It may be time for investors to lower their expectations.
IMF World GDP Forecasts (Alternative Economics) The IMF has quite a track record of downward revisions of GDP growth estimates, but since 2011 they have never revised downward enough. If this was target shooting, all the shots would be in a fairly tight cluster completely off the ringed pattern (to the low side). If this was target shooting, the marksman would be adjusting his/her sights.
Trump virtually clinches Republican presidential nomination (Associated Press) In a stunning triumph for a political outsider, Donald Trump all but clinched the Republican presidential nomination Tuesday with a resounding victory in Indiana that knocked rival Ted Cruz out of the race and cleared Trump's path to a likely November face-off with Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Trump still needs about 200 delegates to formally secure the nomination, but Cruz's decision to end his campaign removed his last major obstacle.
Sanders' Indiana Primary Win Slows Clinton's March to Nomination (Bloomberg) Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders won an upset victory in Indiana's Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday, slowing Hillary Clinton's progress to the nomination and giving his campaign a much-needed boost as the campaign enters its final stage. Based on vote counts and exit polls, Sanders was projected the winner by multiple television networks. Clinton, the former secretary of state, narrowly led in the most recent polling in the state, although her campaign had worked to lower expectations for a win ahead of the results. Still, the margin of Sanders' victory came as a blow at a time when she is trying to focus on the general election. With two-thirds of precincts reporting, Sanders had 53% to Clinton's 47%.
The crisis in the Republican Party is even worse than it looks (Business Insider) Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president, and this alarms ideological conservatives for several reasons. Econintersect: The Republicans may very well be correct on points 2. or 3. But on the first one, the blowout could go the other way (except maybe not for Congress). Many pundits are failing to recognize the disillusioned anger of the American masses. Here are the three concerns:
1. They think he will lose badly to Hillary Clinton, perhaps so badly that Republicans lose control of both houses of Congress.
2. They are afraid that he will damage the brand of the Republican Party, making it harder to win future elections.
3. They believe that he lacks the temperament and character to serve as president.
The 50-year-old mystery behind that photo of Lee Harvey Oswald (The Washington Post) The National Enquirer used information from a photo-scanning company that indicated that Cruz's father Rafael was the man helping Oswald pass out fliers supporting Fidel Castro three months before Kennedy's assassination. So, naturally, that went on the tabloid's cover. The WaPo goes through much discussion to describe how the remote possibility that Rafael Cruz could be true. They find it highly unlikely.
Syria conflict: Assad strategy won't end civil war, says Kerry (BBC News) US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that seeking military gains will not end the civil war. Mr Kerry said there would be "repercussions" if the Syrian government flouted a cessation of violence agreed in February. A resurgence in fighting, particularly in the northern city of Aleppo, has threatened to derail the partial truce. More than 250 people have been killed in Aleppo in the past 10 days. As diplomatic efforts intensified on Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a unilateral truce declared by the Syrian military could be extended to Aleppo "in the next few hours".
Uttarakhand: Experts say raging forest fires could cause glaciers to melt faster (dna) Hat tip to Sanjeev Kulkarni. The raging Uttarakhand forest fires that engulfed large parts of the hill state have raised serious concerns about the adverse and long-lasting effects it could have on the glaciers in the region. The 'black carbon' from smog and ash covering the glaciers could reportedly make them more prone to melting. The concerns have been raised by experts at Nainital's Aryabhatta Research Institute for Observational Sciences (ARIES) and Govind Ballabh Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development (GBPIHED) in Almora. Glaciers such as Gangotri, Milam, Sundardunga, Newla and Cheepa, which are also the source of many rivers are majorly at risk, Manish Kumar, a senior scientist at the atmospherics department in ARIES told the Times of India .
Apple loses trademark fight over iPhone name in China (BBC News) Apple has lost a trademark fight in China, meaning a firm which sells handbags and other leather goods can continue use the name "iPhone". The Beijing Municipal High People's Court ruled in favor of Xintong Tiandi Technology, said the official Legal Daily newspaper. Xintong Tiandi trademarked "iPhone" for leather products in China in 2010. Apple filed a trademark bid for the name for electronic goods in 2002, but it was not approved until 2013.
Japan may not as strong as China, but it is a military power with the third largest economy in the world. Japan is also the world's most powerful superpower when America backed as the Japanese-American mutual defence agreement stipulates. The two countries still have residual USA military base use in Okinawa Port.
In 2013, the world was shocked to read scholars & officials of the Chinese press says that the Ryukyus Islands belong to China. Love this fantasy book, based on real people presence of Chinese people during each Chinese dynasty for more than 600 years, they claim.
Chinese Government has not officially evidenced their demands, but had not refuted other claims with evidences, even now. National Interest recently quoted the analysts said that their demand for the Ryukyus sovereignty is just the way China pressure Japan in the also disputed Senkaku Islands issue of forefather's Fisheries in the East China Sea. Aircraft of both
Nations often encountered each other near Senkaku, as the naval ships of China and their landscape is also continually advancing into the waters around those Islands. Likewise the Chinese provocation of prompted Japan to modernize the military & reclaim that militarization right once precluded by the SFPT 1951 following those terms of the Cairo & Potsdam convention "Japan Surrender" demands & final "Surrender Instrument" Japan signed off on.
According to the National Interest, the attention of the World has focused more on the demands of China's unruly sovereignty for most of the East Coast. Whether Sovereignty is disputed over Ryukyus & Okinawa is just a game of negotiations it is a latent danger. Until recently, the major powers demanding that each other's territory is not uncommon. Even back just 100 years, France & Germany each disputed Alsace-Lorraine.
But since 1945, the territorial demands of the superpower had not been put out broadly as today is the case. To think that Russia can declare the Treaty of 1867 with America is not in force and demanded recovery of the State of Alaska, so we are not convinced is madness & humor or a serious argument. The fact is that the superpowers no longer directly fight anymore, but instead will use the force mandate (Chinawar resistance to American Institute of North Korea in the Korean war was an exception as an Amnesty Accord registered in 1950.
Whether the Ryukyus really belong to China, or not, & whether the Chinese want, or do not want, the matter Internationally settled, Okinawa at present is still considered the jurisdiction of the territory of Japan.
China can not require sovereignty over this area now, as also Japan could not claim territory for Manchuria and Korea, in their National Interest.
According to the National Interest, not the USA President would be able to occupy Chinese territory of Japan, that the United States does not completely humiliated in Asia and around the world. Not one the Japanese Government would be able to take Okinawa that hope can in and also hard to imagine as the Russian President Vladimir Putin could give in to China's demands on the reclaim Siberia. A conflict about the Ryukyus will surely escalate the spiral into a major war with the participation of many countries.
Unless the hot head recalled the lessons of world war two, hoping that the Chinese claim of sovereignty Okinawa meant nothing more than a game to hold the position.
Brazil prosecutors file $44 billion lawsuit against Vale, BHP for dam spill (Business Standard) Hat tip to Sanjeev Kulkarni. Federal prosecutors inBrazil filed a 155 billion-real ($43.5 billion) civil lawsuit on Tuesday against iron miner Samarco, and its owners, Vale SA and BHP Billiton , for a collapsed tailings dam in November that killed 19 people and polluted a major river. The 359-page lawsuit, which is also against the two states affected by the spill and the federal government, is the result of a six-month investigation led by a task force set up after the disaster, prosecutors said in a statement.
Entire city evacuated amid massive Canada wildfire (CNN) Authorities called Tuesday for the mandatory evacuation of the entire city of Fort McMurray in northern Alberta, Canada, because of wildfire. The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo in Alberta tweeted the expanded order Tuesday evening. Nine air tankers and 100 firefighters have been battling the blaze, which began Sunday. The fire was estimated to be around 7,400 acres as of Tuesday morning, according CBC News.
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