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posted on 30 March 2016

Early Headlines: Asia Stocks Mostly Up, Japan Down, Emerging Markets Turnaround, GOP Disintegrating, US Job Confidence At 8 Year High And More

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Early Bird Headlines 30 March 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Global

asia.pac.2016.mar.30

  • The crucial lesson China teaches the West about bank lending - and economic growth (City A.M.) China's QE is to buy nonperforming assets and unclog the financial system. In the West central banks buy performing assets in the hope of creating a wealth effect - but the financial system remains clogged.

  • It's at Least Four Years Since Emerging Markets Had It This Good (Bloomberg) A Bloomberg index tracking emerging currencies rallied in March by the most since 2009, with commodity exporters Russia and Brazil enjoying the biggest gains. Malaysia's ringgit led an advance in Southeast Asia as a rebound in Brent crude brightened the outlook for the oil exporter's finances, while the nation is also home to the world's most resilient bull market for stocks. China's yuan appreciated for a second month, alleviating concerns of a potential currency war through competitive devaluations. All this has been boosted by the Fed appearing to back down from an aggressive interest rate policy which has stopped the U.S. dollar appreciation dead in its tracks. Emerging market stocks have also rallied for their best month in more than 4 years. Graph below is for currency gains so far in March.

emerging.currencies.rally.2016.mar

U.S.

  • Trump rescinds pledge to back GOP nominee; Walker backs Cruz (Associated Press) The Republican Party is coming apart at the seams. Donald Trump, turning his focus to Wisconsin even as another controversy cast a shadow over his campaign, said Tuesday he will no longer honor his pledge to support the eventual Republican pick for president. And his two Republican rivals, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, also refused to say they would support Trump or whoever is the nominee.

  • Second judge says Clinton email setup may have been in 'bad faith' (Reuters) A second federal judge has taken the rare step of allowing a group suing for records from Hillary Clinton's time as U.S. secretary of state to seek sworn testimony from officials, saying there was "evidence of government wrong-doing and bad faith". The language in Judge Royce Lamberth's order undercut the Democratic presidential contender's assertion she was allowed to set up a private email server in her home for her work as the country's top diplomat and that the arrangement was not particularly unusual. He described Clinton's email arrangement as "extraordinary" in his order filed on Tuesday in federal district court in Washington.

  • Gundlach says April rate hike 'inconceivable' after lower GDP forecasts (Reuters) Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed investor who runs DoubleLine Capital, said on Monday that an interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve in April is "inconceivable," given lower forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model on Monday predicted growth at a 0.6% pace in the first quarter, marked down from an earlier estimate of 1.4%. And forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimated GDP growth at a 1% pace in the first three months of 2016, down from an earlier prediction of 1.5%.

  • Extreme Voter Outrage In Arizona (Facebook) Hat tip to Roger Erickson. The establishment-controlled election system in Arizona has gotten hundreds of thousands of people raging mad in Arizona.

  • America's confidence in the labor market is at an 8-year high (Business Insider) The Conference Board released its March reading of consumer confidence on Tuesday. The headline index rose more than expected to 96.2 (94 forecast). The report also showed that the consumers surveyed who said jobs are "plentiful" rose to the highest level since September 2007. For complete analysis see Econintersect Economic Release: March 2016 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Improves.

confidence.jobs.2016.mar.29

EU

  • European policy is driving refugees to more dangerous routes across the Med (The Conversation) One of the main problems with the current approach to this crisis is the assumption that refugees and migrants are drawn towards particular countries because they offer employment, welfare, education or housing. This ignores the fact that in 2015 over 90% of those arriving by sea in Greece came from the world's top-ten refugee producing countries, 56% from Syria. The 'migration crisis' is in fact a crisis of refugee protection. In 2016 the death rate has increased dramatically as more dangerous routes are attempted by desperate people.

UK

Turkey

  • US orders families out of south and west Turkey over security (BBC News) The US says it has ordered families of defense personnel and diplomats out of parts of Turkey amid security fears. Dependants are being moved out of Adana, Izmir and Mugla provinces. The US European Command said the decision was not permanent but "intended to mitigate the risk to [Department of Defense] elements and personnel, including family members". Once a beacon of stability, Turkey has entered a period of high tension and violence.

Syria

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