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posted on 06 December 2015

Turkey vs. Russia, Really?

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A major event happened in the Middle East recently: Turkey shoots down Russia warplane on Syria border. What are the true implications? You won't realize what they are by reading the mainstream media! Three examples:

  1. The Czar vs. the Sultan.
  2. Erdogan's Deadly Ambitions.
  3. For Putin, the war on terror makes for good politics.

All three articles are interesting, but none points to the key problem, thanks to the Stupid Media! So allow me to add my thoughts ...

1. Nobody messes with Russia!

Over the past 200 years at least, Russia has proven to be extremely resilient to even the most powerful military forces on earth. Two big examples:

  1. Napoleon's Disastrous Invasion of Russia 200 Years Ago.
  2. Who Actually Decisively Defeated Nazi Germany? Russia!

In response to the recent U.S. hostility (e.g. Ukraine), Russian President Putin famously said: Vladimir Putin: Don't mess with nuclear-armed Russia. Is there any truth to Putin's warning? Yes! Here is a concrete example: Russia Now Has More Deployed Nuclear Warheads than the U.S.!

Why, then, was Turkey so daring as to have shot down a Russian jet? Turkey is rolling the dice!

2. Turkey's gamble

Turkey is gambling that by shooting down a Russian jet, it may derail Russia's mission in Syria: keeping Assad in power by destroying all his enemies, including both ISIS and the rebels supported by America!

Like any gamble, it involves both risk and possible reward!

2.1 Reward

Look at the map below:

Not only does Turkey border with both Syria and Iraq, the neighboring territories in Syria and Iraq happen to be controlled by ISIS! In other words, Turkey has been surreptitiously financing ISIS - oil for cash! Although most Americans were oblivious, the rest of the world suspected, if not knew, it, even before any solid evidence was presented (Russia presents proof of Turkey's role in ISIS oil trade)!

It is also widely known that Assad is considered an enemy by Turkish leaders!

2.2 Risk

The obvious risk is, of course, Russia's retaliation, which Turkey hopes will be prevented by her NATO alliance ...

3. Turkey will lose!

There was just too great a financial incentive for Turkey not to take a chance now! Unfortunately for Turkey, it may well lose the gamble! Three main reasons:

  1. Russia cannot, and will not, allow a Turkish gambit without severe punishment!
  2. NATO is not as strong as the West fools itself into believing, as proven by the recent Ukraine debacle.
  3. Timing is good for Russia.

Let me elaborate on each.

3.1 Russia's retaliation

For mighty Russia, if puny Turkey is allowed to shoot down one of its jets without retaliation, even if it was slightly into Turkey's airspace, she will be shamed in the world's eyes. Putin obviously cares about Russia, including its image!

If puny Turkey is allowed to act with impunity because of its NATO membership, will the other minor NATO countries (e.g. Denmark or Poland) follow suit?

Russia must respond, regardless of Turkey's NATO alliance!

3.2 NATO

NATO has little meaning and is toothless without America!

What about America? The simple truth is that despite her strong self-assurances, America has not truly been the only super-power on earth since 1991, when the Cold War ended! Two points:

  1. Militarily, Russia has been just as powerful and dangerous as the USSR was throughout the Cold War. For more, read: Russia Now Has More Deployed Nuclear Warheads than the U.S.
  2. Economically, China has been dramatically advancing over the past few decades, and is well on her way to unseating America as the largest economy on earth by 2030. For Russia, the worst of her economic woes is over, and its recently renewed relationship with China has been highly beneficial to both countries. For more, read: Three New Kingdoms.

In short, NATO is only as strong as America, which has been in a steep decline over the past decade at least ...

3.3 Timing is good for Russia!

With the recent terror attacks in Paris and Mali (Why Can't We All Just Get Along?), the West is more determined to destroy ISIS than ever! It means one major thing: a closer alliance with Russia, which is more damaging to ISIS than all the other Western efforts combined (Mapped: Russian vs. U.S. Airstrikes in Syria)!

4. Discussion

Why was Turkey so outrageously daring, as compared with the other powers in the region, such as Israel (Russian jet enters Israeli air space, but isn't shot down)?

America, what would you do if you were Russia in this case?

Even if we would run away, Russia must, and will, retaliate against Turkey!

Is there anything for the West to worry about? No! Russian retaliation against Turkey will be measured, thanks to President Putin, one of the proven savviest world leaders today!

For NATO, when one of your allies has blundered, let her accept an appropriate punishment! Otherwise, there will be no happy family, let alone any world order!

5. Closing

Once again, Russia must, and will, retaliate against Turkey, or there would be no world order!

Sorry, Turkey, you have just messed with Russia. So be ready for Russian justice (Putin: Turkey Will Regret Downing Plane)! Nobody will come to your rescue, because nobody, including NATO as well as America, can afford to mess with Russia!

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