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posted on 04 November 2015

Middle East: Past, Present, and Future

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The Middle East has been the most troubled region throughout the 21st century, so far. I have already written about it many times. Five examples:

  1. What's The Real Cost of The Iraq War?
  2. U.S. Middle East Policy: What's Wrong?
  3. Arab Spring, Four Years Later
  4. Sisi vs. ISIS: Dictatorship vs. Mob Rule
  5. Democracy: to be or not to be?

It's time for another article because of the recent developments (e.g. Syria air strike: Russian fighter jets bomb targets and Syria: Obama authorizes boots on ground to fight ISIS).

1. The past

The Middle East has long been a very troubled region for two main reasons:

  1. Religious conflicts for the past 2,000 years at least.
  2. Oil for the past 100 years.

However, it has become the most troubled region in the 21st century for one main reason: America's reckless policies and actions! Specifically,

  1. The Iraq War.
  2. Recklessly spreading democracy, which does not even work at home (Democracy in America)!

2. The present

Currently, the biggest problem is obviously ISIS. But who created ISIS in the first place? George W. Bush with the assistance of Tony Blair! Blair has started acknowledging it (Tony Blair's acceptance that Iraq war facilitated rise of ISIS is a first step to acknowledging the conflict was a disaster), but Bush has not, despite the fact that many Americans understand it. For more, watch this short video:

What, then, is the solution to the ISIS problem?

Russia not only has the best, and perhaps the only, solution, but also has started implementing it! Yes, Bashar al-Assad is the only local force capable of defeating ISIS, in Syria at least, and Russia is supporting him by destroying all his enemies, including all the rebel groups supported by America!

In contrast, America has lost her way again, without any real solution! Why not? Because America has yet to acknowledge the obvious root cause: the fundamental truth that a bad dictator is often better than anarchy, as in the case of Iraq and Libya! Donald Trump understands it (Donald Trump’s Line on Iraq Is the Harvard of Harvard Comparisons), but most Republicans don’t, very unfortunately!

Worse yet, America is likely to continue its guileless strategy. Here is the latest development: Syria: Obama authorizes boots on ground to fight ISIS. How many of these American soldiers will die or be wounded to no avail? Why? Because not only is ISIS a problem created by us in the first place, it is also a problem for which we simply have no real solution!

Worse still, some of our precious service members may become causalities of Russian bombs and there is virtually nothing America can do, other than useless posturing, to retaliate against nuclear-armed Russia!

On the other hand, not only will few Russians die based on their current strategy (e.g. no ground troops), Russia is replacing America as the major foreign influence in that region!

3. The future

America's presence and influence in the Middle East will soon be diminished, replaced by Russia! How might that happen?

What does Russia want, first and foremost? Higher oil prices! Russia's action may well bring them about following the current path. Specifically, look at this map:

Two prominent points:

  1. Iran, a staunch Russian ally, will inevitably become the dominant force in that region. Now, add Iraq, Syria (and Hezbollah) to Iran as a big coalition.
  2. Saudi Arabia will likely remain as a major American ally. But it's no match against Iran, and will hence cave in to Iran's (and Russia's) demand to curtail oil production, resulting in much higher oil prices!

Finally, what about Israel? It already has its hands full with the Palestinians (and Hezbollah) and must find her new path to live with a much more dominant Iran! Of course, Israel is smart enough not to mess with Russia, ever! For more, read: Netayahu visits Putin amid concerns Russian involvement in Syria!

4. Blaming Barack Obama and George W. Bush!

It's been rumored that when he was asked about a possible reaction from President Obama to Russia's recent bombing exercises in Syria, President Putin replied: "Obama's brain is a bucket of paste". It is unlikely Putin had actually said it, but I have to agree with this assessment, not only for President Obama, but also for President George W. Bush!

Still wondering about Iraq? Wonder not – It was victimized by two American Presidents for their personal gains! For more, read: American Presidency: Why is One-Term a Must (Version 3)?

Still wondering why the Middle East has been such a huge disaster for America this century so far? Wonder not - A fish rots from the head!

Really want to know how bad the refugee situation is in, and from, the Middle East? Watch this video:

Now, ask yourself a profound question: could this have possibly happened without the Iraq War and then America’s insistence on removing Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria?

5. Closing

With the Middle East lost, what does that mean to the American Empire?

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