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posted on 25 October 2015

Vulnerabilities, Legacies, And Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating To Emerging Markets

from the International Monetary Fund

During the past six months financial stability has improved in advanced economies, but risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets amid a lower risk appetite and higher market and liquidity risks. In advanced economies, growth is gaining traction, and monetary policy normalization is approaching in the United States. Despite these improvements in advanced economies, emerging market vulnerabilities remain elevated.

Several key emerging market economies face substantial domestic imbalances, and growth projections have been downgraded, leaving financial stability risks tilted to the downside. The possibility of a global asset market disruption, whereby market risk premiums would decompress in a disorderly way and spread financial contagion, remains heightened. Such a scenario could derail the recovery and delay or stall monetary policy exits. In contrast, "successful normalization" - featuring gradually rising risk premiums, orderly balance sheet adjustments, and renewed financial and corporate health - will require concerted policy action.

Financial stability has improved modestly in advanced economies since the April 2015 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), as shown in the Global Financial Stability Map (Figure 1.1) and its components (Figure 1.2). Risks continue to rotate from advanced economies to emerging markets and from banking to nonbanking sectors, keeping emerging market risks elevated, while market and liquidity risks continue to increase, in an environment of lower risk appetite.

[click on image below to continue reading]

Source: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2015/02/pdf/c1.pdf

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