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posted on 30 September 2015

Early Headlines: Equities Worse Quarter In 4 Years, Buy Commodities?, High MA In Europe, Death Of Diesel, India Tops World FDI And More

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Early Bird Headlines 30 September 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

early-bird-301-180

Global

  • Equities on course for worst quarter since 2011 (Financial Times) A big rally is needed today or U.S. and global equities are heading for their worst quarterly performance since 2011, with investors rattled by China's economic slowdown, uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy and growing pessimism about corporate earnings. Global stock markets are poised to shed more than $10 trillion in value. The FTSE Emerging Index has plunged more than 21% this quarter, its worst showing since 2011, and the fifth-worst quarter this millennium.
  • Asian shares rally, but still on track for quarterly losses (Reuters) Most Asian stock markets rallied on Wednesday after sliding to 3-year lows but concerns lingered over a weak outlook for commodities and China's economic growth. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.5% at 2137 EDT after plumbing its lowest since June 2012 on Tuesday. See next article. See also Asian stocks mostly stabilize on final trading day of Q3 (CNBC): asia.2015.sep.30
  • MSCI Asia Ex-Japan share index falls 2.2 pct to 3-1/2 year low (Reuters) MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 2.2% yesterday (Tuesday). The index reached its lowest levels since June 2012. Japanese stocks also were down - see below (Japan).
  • Commodities Are Collapsing; Now is the Time to Buy (Nasdaq.com) For those looking for a bottom in the commodity space there have been a few false starts already, and the current bounce could be another one. The author "guesses" there could be further to fall, but, he says, from a long term perspective it is hard to imagine this slump lasting for years. He thinks its time to start nibbling at commodities.

commodity.index.decline

U.S.

Again the US stock market skates on the edge of an abyss, this time without the Fed holding a safety net. We've seen this combination of peaking economy and overvalued stocks; it never ends well. Too bad we don't learn from history. But I suspect we'll soon get another opportunity.

EU

  • European M&A at highest levels for eight years (City A.M.) M&A deals are getting bigger and better in Europe. Their value is rising even as their numbers are falling. According to research from law firm CMS, the value of deals in the first half of 2015 was at its highest level since 2007 - up 17% - from 14% fewer deals compared with last year.
  • Market economy status for China is a disaster for Europe (City A.M.) Anti-dumping is a protectionist tariff a government imposes on foreign imports, if it thinks that they're priced below normal market value. This effectively meant the US and Europe could place much higher duties on imports from China in anti-dumping cases than if China was treated as a market economy. If China gains status of a market economy, which appears possible in 2016, the economy in the rest of the world will be set back. This article proposes the effects would be particularly harmful to the fragile recovery in Europe.

Germany

  • Volkswagen scandal fuels fears over 'death of diesel' (Financial Times) EU carmakers are braced for tougher regulations that will drive up the costs of making diesel cars. With razor-thin margins the higher costs may lead to the elimination of much diesel production for passenger cars. The first chart below shows how VW stock has been crushed relative to other European car manufacturers. The second display of charts shows the relative importance of diesel production among these manufacturers. Econintersect: Is the loss of value for VW stock overdone or does everybody else have some catching up to do?

vw.and.others.decline

vw.and.others.diesel

Russia

India

  • India Has Overtaken the U.S. and China to Top Spot in a Key World Foreign Investment Table (Time) India's burgeoning economy attained another major milestone on Wednesday, as the South Asian nation surpassed both China and the U.S. to become the top global destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) in greenfield projects. Data compiled by fDi markets, a service of the Financial Times newspaper, showed that India attracted $3 billion more than China and $4 billion more than the U.S. for greenfield projects (projects that involve overseas firms building new production facilities in a country as opposed to buying or renting existing facilities) during the first half of 2015. See also India grabs investment league pole position (Financial Times).

Japan

  • Asian Shares Slide; Japan Gives Up Gains for the Year (Nasdaq.com) Japan's Nikkei Stock Average closed down 4.1% at 16930.84, an eight-month low, wiping out all 2015 gains.
  • Traders fleeing to yen hampers Abenomics (Taipei Times) The yen is the best-performing major currency this quarter amid a rush for havens from the turmoil stalking global markets. Options suggest there is an almost even chance of a gain to 115 per US dollar by Dec. 31, a level the currency has not closed at all year and compared with 120.31 as of 9:11 am in London yesterday (Monday 28 September). Buyers are attracted by Japan's current-account surplus, which makes it relatively immune to overseas shocks, like China's surprise devaluation last month. Yet the stronger exchange rate is hampering Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's efforts to address the nation's lackluster growth and falling consumer prices.

China

  • China identifies priority sectors for industrial upgrades (Xinhuanet News) China is aiming to shift the country from low-end manufacturing to more value-added production. The list includes new information technologies, numerically controlled machines and robots, aerospace devices, ocean engineering and shipping, advanced rail equipment, new energy vehicles, electrical equipment, agricultural machines, advanced materials, biological medicine and medical instruments.

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