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posted on 21 June 2015

Stock Market Cyclical Bull Begins Important Test

by Erik McCurdy, Prometheus Market Insight

In early June, we noted that the historic stock market bubble had begun to exhibit early signs of weakness. At the time, our computer model predicted the imminent formation of the latest short-term cycle low (STCL) and intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL). As expected, the STCL formed on June 9 and the ITCL formed during the week ending June 12.

Market internals such as breadth and volume continue to negatively diverging from price behavior, indicating that the bull market is losing upward momentum.

These breakdowns in market internals tell us that distribution is taking place and that market participants are becoming more risk averse, suggesting that the uptrend has become vulnerable to a breakdown. As always, it is important to remember that a long-term top is a process, not an event. Now that the latest ITCL is in place, the character of the advance during the next several weeks will provide an important assessment of bull market health.

We will identify the key developments as they occur in our daily market forecasts and signal notifications available to paid subscribers. Try our service for free. If you are a paid subscriber, login to read the full version of this commentary.

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