posted on 11 March 2015
Written by Frank Li
1. What is a WMD?
By WMDs, I am referring to nuclear weapons (both uranium and hydrogen bombs), with intercontinental missiles as an additional factor.
2. Overview of WMDs
Here is a recent article on nuclear weapons: The unkicked addiction. It is a must-read for anyone who is concerned about the subject. Unfortunately, it's too one-sided western, as usual. So let me make it worldly ...
The diagram below, extracted from this article, offers a good overview of where we are today.
3. The big three
By "big three", I mean America, Russia, and China. They all have nuclear weapons as well as intercontinental missiles. If any one of them chooses to attack another, it will surely be met with a retaliation, resulting in MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction)!
The balance between the big three has been there since 1970, at least. It was unchanged with the end of the Cold War in 1991. Unfortunately, many American leaders do not seem to realize that. Instead, they act as if America were truly the only military superpower left on earth, without seeing or admitting the obvious: in terms of WMDs, Russia is just as strong today as it was during the Cold War! Here are two recent news stories:
So treat Russia (and China) with respect! Specifically, stop pushing Russia around (e.g. Ukraine) and vilifying President Putin, one of the greatest Russian leaders in recent history. For more, read: Mikhail Gorbachev vs. Deng Xiaoping.
The big three must not only behave themselves, such as avoiding a direct military conflict between them, but also do everything possible to keep the other nuclear-armed countries in check.
4. Three nuclear hot spots
Let me elaborate on each.
4.1 India and Pakistan
Both have WMDs and the two neighbors dislike each other intensely. But they seem to have achieved a balance for the past decade, at least. Very importantly, the big three have maintained balanced relationships with both of them.
Unfortunately, both India and Pakistan face huge chronic domestic challenges in the coming years, such as over population, low literacy, and abject poverty. Worse yet, both are democracies - There has not been a single example of success for a third-world democracy to achieve prosperity without robust capitalism first! Hopefully both India and Pakistan will successfully resolve their own problems by keeping their age-old antagonism in check.
Now, for India vs. China, read: Emerging Economies: An Overview from 30,000 Feet.
4.2 The Middle East
At this time, Israel remains the only country in the Middle East that overtly possesses WMDs. This is certainly a major imbalance in that region, resulting in many related problems, such as Iran's effort to acquire WMDs, allegedly in the name of self-defense.
Like a smoldering volcano, the Middle East may erupt at any time. The mere presence of WMDs is problematic not only for the region, but also for the world! Why? Because there is a possibility of accidental detonation, or of them falling into the wrong hands, of which there are many in the Middle East!
The truth: without a two-state solution, Israel will lose to its neighbors by attrition, despite its possession of WMDs.
The real solution for the Middle East: to be free of nuclear weapons!
Unfortunately, Israel does not seem to be facing the truth and America does not seem to be working on the real solution!
Note that I support Israel and I admire Jewish people for their accomplishments (People). But I do not want to put Israel's interest above America's!
4.3 North Korea
North Korea is perhaps very close to, if not already, having WMDs. But it's more a problem for China than for America. Unfortunately, America has been interfering, making it its problem, or, to be more precise, its ally's problem. For more, read: America: What to Do with North Korea?
Among the big three, the most irresponsible country is obviously America. America has been not only acting as the world's policemen, according to its own self-proclaimed interest, but also supporting its allies relentlessly, disregarding America's own interest. Two examples:
Both examples involve Iran. Yet, it is America that has most helped Iran to become the dominant force in that region! How? By helping to depose Pahlavi, the former Shah of Iran, and by first creating, then destroying the Saddam regime! For more, read: What's The Real Cost of The Iraq War?
Bottom line: America does not have a sound foreign policy of its own! Every foreign policy, like most domestic policies, is for some special interest groups!
Specifically on Israel, Pat Buchanan was right in saying "Capitol Hill is Israeli occupied territory" (Pat Buchanan: In His Own Words)!
More broadly, the MIC (Military-Industrial Complex) seems to have been greatly driving our foreign policy. The MIC has proven to be just as bad as President Eisenhower warned us against it more than 50 years ago (Eisenhower's Farewell Address): it is the biggest threat to the well-being of America! It is far worse than the one JFK fought hard against! For more, read: JFK vs. the Military.
Will America be able to keep the MIC in check? Perhaps not! For more, read: America: A Culture of War.
Now, what should be America's ultimate interest in general and in the WMDs in specific? Self-preservation! For more, read: Three New Kingdoms!
Specifically, if there is a direct conflict between any two of the big three, it will mean WWIII. Here is the certainty: America will be involved.
Here are two big questions:
It's up to the big three to maintain world peace, and America holds the key!
Unfortunately for the world, unless America changes, fundamentally and big, as I have suggested (e.g. "The GOP Bible for 2016"), America will continue to decline, all the while making the world more and more dangerous.
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