Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI's recession call. The readings declined slightly for the second week in a row - but the current levels of the WLI are still within an improvement channel - and showing positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI's coincident and lagging indicators for April were also revised in this post (see below)

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Written by Steven Hansen

• new orders up 6.4% month-over-month, and up 4.4% year-over-year
• Inflation adjusted new orders are up 1.8% year-over-year
• production (inflation adjusted using the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index - durable goods) down 1.6% month-over-month, up 2.3% year-over-year [note that this is a series with moderate backward revision - and it uses production as a pulse point (not new orders or shipments)] - three month trend is "less good"
• backlog (unfilled orders) down 0.1% month-over-month
• civilian airplanes were the tailwind for durables this month - but most everything was showing moderate to good growth.

Gary Is On Vacation Until Tuesday, 28 May

It is my firm belief that the market will still be here when I get back, so fear not somehow we will survive. Don't do anything rash over the weekend and remember Monday the 27th. is a Market Holiday.

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by Sam Seiden, Online Trading Academy

London is one of the Forex trading hot spots on the planet. I live in Chicago but also spend time in London. When I am with London traders, I notice they are trying to make so many different strategies work in the Forex market, yet I don't meet anyone who is achieving the success they are in search of. They don't realize the key factor in trading is proper market timing. Market Timing is the ability to identify market turning points and market moves in advance, before they happen, with a very high degree of accuracy. It is also the ability to identify where market prices are going to go, before they go there. The main reason you would want to know how to time the markets turning points in advance is to attain the lowest risk, highest reward, and highest probability entry into a position in the market. Think about it, by entering as close to the turn in price as possible, you enjoy three key factors:

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Econintersect: A study of the impact of extended unemployment benefits has found no measurable affect on the rate at which the unemployed return to work. The implication is that availability of further unemployment benefits does not reduce percentage of the unemployed returning to work. But there other correlations that do imply possible behavioral impacts for the extended benefits.

The study is discussed in a working paper by Henry S. Farber of Princeton University and Robert G. Valletta, Federal Reserve Bank of California.

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by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets

One of the reasons that it is been so hard for a lot of analysts, even trained economists, to understand the imbalances that were at the root of the current crisis is that we too easily confuse national savings with household savings. By coincidence there was recently a very interestingdebate on the subject involving several economists, and it is pretty clear from the debate that even accounting identities can lead to confusion.

The difference between household and national savings matters because of the impact of national savings on a country's current account, as I discuss in a recent piece in Foreign Policy. In it I argue that we often and mistakenly think of nations as if they were simply very large households. Because we know that the more a household saves out of current income, the better prepared it is for the future and the more likely to get rich, we assume the same must be true for a country. Or as Mr. Micawber famously insisted:

Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.

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Investing.com Technical Analysis (as of Thu, 23 May 2013 05:00pm EDT)

by Investing.com Staff, Investing.com

Below, technical overviews and analysis for key stock indices, commodities and currency pairs, based on market activity at the end of the 23 May 2013 U.S. session. This information is a comprehensive summary derived from simple and exponential moving averages along with key technical indicators shown for specific time intervals.

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Fifty percent of American small businesses close up shop within their first year. But in 2011, more establishments opened than closed. All of these factors and more create a competitive environment where longevity is the name of the game and a key to success. So what can you do to ensure your doors stay open? You'll find the answers in the infographic below.

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Fed's Balance Sheet is a record $3.356 trillion (up from the last week's record $3.311 trillion). The complete balance sheet data and graphical breakdown of the cumulative and weekly changes follows the "read more".

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by Felix Richter, Statista.com

Despite the difficulties Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) has faced as a company in the past six months, the Apple brand remains as strong as ever. That's according to Millward Brown's Brandz Top 100 ranking published earlier this week. Millward Brown estimates the implicit value of Apple as a brand at $185 billion, up from $183 billion in 2012. This brand value is 62% greater than the number two brand, making Apple clearly the brand name top dog.

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by Lance Roberts, Streetalk Live

"The federal poverty threshold for a family of four is just under $24,000; however, Americans believe such a family unit living in their community needs more than double that - $58,000, on average - just to 'get by.' That estimate reflects 29% of Americans saying these families need up to $50,000 in annual income, 47% saying they need between $50,000 and $99,999, and 10% saying they need $100,000 or more."

Closing Market Commentary For 05-23-2013

Market was trading in a narrow range while the volume was in the moderate range. The bulls and bears did the tug-o-war thing most of the day and the bull sorta brought the markets back up to flat and lackluster status. The gap left this morning in the SP500 was just covered as was a few others. The question is are we good to go upward or downward?

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Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.

The top of today's reading list has Trang Ho's explanation why gold could drop another 80% ........ and the last article is Felix Salmon's admonition: "Don't Fear the Bubble".

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