Markets Nearly Flat; Oil Down

February 18th, 2015
in Gary's blogging, market close, syndication

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 02-18-2015

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The Fed Minutes report calmed investors and the lower open this morning recovered to nearly unchanged by the time the market closed.

Follow up:

The Dow and S&P 500 ended barely lower on Wednesday after a drop in energy shares but declines were limited by minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, which showed policymakers are concerned about raising interest rates too soon.

Exxon Mobil (N:XOM), which fell 2.2 percent to $91.01, was the biggest drag on both the S&P 500 and Dow following an explosion and fire at an Exxon refinery near Los Angeles and a drop in crude oil prices. Also, Berkshire Hathaway (N:BRKa) disclosed shedding a $3.74 billion investment in Exxon.

Continue reading the stock market summary from Reuters at

The comeback rally in oil paused on Wednesday, with crude prices falling 5 percent or more after traders and investors were overwhelmed by the latest estimates for U.S. supply builds that came in nearly five times above market expectations. Read more from Reuters at

Here are the market measurements from yesterday's market close: members' sentiments are 63 % Bearish.

CNN's Fear & Greed Index is 76. Above 50 = greed, below 50 = fear. (At 'Extreme Greed') (Chart Here) The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 58.6 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend. Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +31.98. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.

This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages. NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 58.03 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's. NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.86. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.80. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 21.45. (Chart Here) The Stock Market Is Just Noticing What The Bond Market Has Known For Months The all time low is 13.94 (11-2012). Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 74.71. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.00 / 62.75 (and staying there) should be of a great concern to bullish investors. NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 11,043. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling and this NYA Index is followed by Institutional Investors. It is a very important index for investors to watch. We are above the support (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,000 to 11,108, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next support down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways, but elevated near its session highs.

Citi: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC'

The recent surge in oil prices is just a "head-fake," and oil as cheap as $20 a barrel may soon be on the way, Citigroup said in a report . . . Despite global declines in spending that have driven up oil prices in recent weeks, oil production in the U.S. is still rising, wrote Edward Morse, Citigroup's global head of commodity research. Brazil and Russia are pumping oil at record levels, and Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran have been fighting to maintain their market share by cutting prices t30 Asia. The market is oversupplied, and storage tanks are topping out. Read More >>

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

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Written by Gary


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