November 14th, 2014
in Gary's blogging
Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-14-2014
Markets closed mixed with the SP500 making a new closing high and the DOW in the red. The NASDAQ closed higher almost matching its February, 2000 closing high of 4696.69.
By 4 pm the averages had stopped the trending down and made a last minute push to close higher than it would have as the BTFDers jumped in. Why the markets have not gone up is confusing investors heading into the weekend.
Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the short-term market direction meter is very bullish rising from neutral this morning. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 24.91. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.
Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warning of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 63 % Bearish (falling from 70% and now rising from 33%).
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 17.23. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
This $NYA200R chart below is the percentage of stocks above the 200 DMA and is always a good statistic to follow. It can depict a trend of declining equities which is always troubling, especially when it drops below 60% - 55%. Dropping below 40%-35% signals serious continuing weakness and falling averages.
StockChart.com NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at 56.20 %. (Chart Here) The downside decent has reversed, but will it continue to rise above 50%? The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 57.57. (Chart Here) Below support zone but rising. Next stop was ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. We are seriously below 44 and need a reversal pronto as it looks like there is nothing to stop the fall until 25 and taking the markets with it.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 23.20. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,876. (Chart Here) We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance at ~10600/900, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. If they don't then there an excellent possibility for the markets going higher now that we have topped 10900. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 17635 down 18 or -0.10%. (Historical High 17,705.48)
The SP500 is at 2040 up 0.49 or 0.02%. (Historical High 2,046.18)
SPY is at 204.28 up 0.05 or 0.02%.
The $RUT is at 1174 down 1.61 or -0.14%.
NASDAQ is at 4689 up 8 or 0.18%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4225 up 12 or 0.27%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.31 down 0.48 or -3.48%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is mixed and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 76.25 (resistance) and 73.27 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 75.92. (Chart Here)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1146.10 earlier to 1193.00 and is currently trading down at 1188.40. The current intra-session trend is positive. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.045 rising from 2.982 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 88.36 and 87.46 and is currently trading down at 87.59, the bias is currently negative. (Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary