Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-19-2014
The averages moved off their morning highs to a flat and mixed market place. Volume has fallen to anemic levels once again pointing out the obvious that few are trading this bull-run. It seems the HFT algo computers don't know what to do either as the averages continue to melt down.
By noon the only thing that was up was the $VIX and the DOW and I am not sure how long the DOW is going to remain there - CAUTION.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday and the short-term market direction meter is bearish. We remain mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned significantly and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am getting very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned up and remains zero zero at 8.73. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 75 % Bearish and it seems to be a good sign for being bullish. The 'Sheeples' always seem to get it wrong.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 25.93. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -19.86. (Chart Here) But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold.
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above [66.88], all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and was a signal that we might have another reversal as were are witnessing.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 17293 up 27 or 0.15%.
The SP500 is at 2011 down 1 or -0.04%.
SPY is at 200.70 down 0.18 or -0.09%.
The $RUT is at 1148 down 11 or -0.93%.
NASDAQ is at 4572 down 22 or -0.47%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4091 down 12 or -0.30%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.33 up 0.29 or 2.41%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 92.23 (resistance) and 91.16 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, volatile and is currently trading down at 91.39. (Chart Here)
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The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold fell from 1229.12 earlier to 1215.19 and is currently trading down at 1218.30. The current intra-session trend is negative. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.093 rising from 3.070 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 84.90 and 84.33 and is currently trading up at 84.88, the bias is currently positive. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary