Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-05-2014
The morning action included rising from the lows after sea-sawing deliberating whether to climb or descend some more. The averages have climbed back up to flat status on falling volume mostly on the signed Ukraine/Russian cease fire agreement.
By noon the Mr. Market was trying to push higher, but was quickly losing the steam needed to go higher leaving most indices flat. The prospects of slipping down by the session end are greater than rising higher. (Maybe!) The bull looks tired.
If it hasn't obvious to the 'Sheeples' seeing what is really going on in the U.S., the EU and China, it should be by now. Read my weekend commentary tomorrow for an insight how the World problems are going to exacerbate the 'issues' already here in the U.S. and perhaps bring on another recession.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting, but now I am very concerned. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 11.91. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have starting to turn bearish.
Investing.com members' sentiments are 61.5 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.21. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -2.78. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24, signaling a market reversal and it has started.
Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Wednesday, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon - at least to cover the gap below at 67.85. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 12:30 is at 17088 up 19 or 0.11%.
The SP500 is at 2000 up 2 or 0.13%.
SPY is at 200.50 up 0.28 or 0.14%.
The $RUT is at 1166 down 0.77 or -0.07%.
NASDAQ is at 4563 up 0.72 or 0.02%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4071 up 5 or 0.12%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.46 down 0.18 or -1.42%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.98 (resistance) and 93.10 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 93.12. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)
The general consensus is that gold prices will actually fall in the next twelve months (Sept to Aug. 2015). Goldman Sachs estimates that gold will fall to $1,050 an ounce, a drop of nearly 19%.
Gold rose from 1263.32 earlier to 1274.36 and is currently trading down (reversing course) at 1267.20. The current intra-session trend is sideways. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.163 rising from 3.143 earlier. Very volatile this morning. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 83.96 and 83.58 and is currently trading up at 83.77, the bias is currently neutral and volatile. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!
"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary