Markets Close Lower After Day-Long Fade

September 4th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market open, syndication

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 09-04-2014

Gary is off today.  This report is from our syndication partner

U.S. stocks ended down on Thursday, retreating from intraday records for the S&P and Dow, as a decline in energy shares sapped an earlier rally following the European Central Bank's new stimulus measures.

Follow up:

Analysts attributed the late-day pullback to nervousness ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs data. Expectations are for payroll growth of 225,000 in August, according to a Reuters poll.

The wait for jobs data "might have dried up the markets a bit and made it a light day," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.  Read further details at members' sentiments are 59 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 61.4 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 65.98. (Chart Here) Very close to resistance now and rising. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 76.20. (Chart Here) Remains below support, now resistance. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 24.10. (Chart Here) Treasury Yield Curve Approaches Flattest Since 2009. Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 29.82. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and starts to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Wednesday, 8-20-2014, $NYMO climbed to 58.24 is signaling a market reversal in our near future. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 68.76. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Today, 9-3-2014, XLY edged up to 69.25 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon - at least to cover the gap below at 67.85. Protect thyself!

The DOW at 4:00 is at 17078 up 11 or 0.06%.

The SP500 is at 2001 down 1.56 or -0.08%.

SPY is at 200.45 down 0.11 or -0.05%.

The $RUT is at 1172 down 7 or -0.62%.

NASDAQ is at 4573 down 26 or -0.56%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4071 down 25 or -0.61%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.36 up 0.11 or 0.90%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is depressed, but sideways.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 95.78 (resistance) and 93.06 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 95.38. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 5H time scale.)

Brent Crude is trading between 103.13 (resistance) and 100.45 (support) today. The session bias is elevated and sideways and is currently trading down at 102.42. (Chart Here)

Why Gold Will Rise When The Dollar Falls

Gold rose from 1262.10 earlier to 1272.00 and is currently trading down at 1270.60. The current intra-session trend is trending up. (Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 3.132 falling from 3.167 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 83.07 and 82.85 and is currently trading down at 82.86, the bias is currently sideways and volatile. (Chart Here)


The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

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Written by Gary


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