Market Commentary: Averages Trend Upwards As The Volume Falls

August 8th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 08-08-2014

The averages continue to show strength as the SP500 climbs back across the 100 DMA and the DOW remains above a major support and the 200 DMA.

By noon the session trend was up, but volume was falling again leaving investors to wonder if this upward session trend was going to last.

Follow up:

We are at a crossroad and have been stalled in the middle hoping an 18 wheeler won't come barging through and completely spoil the Bull's 5 year party.

Can The Bulls Make A Stand Near Support?


  • Iraq gets added to investor's list of concerns.

  • The S&P 500 is nearing an area that has been relevant to buyers and sellers in recent months.

  • Europe's good news/bad news message.


The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side (barely) at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -11.63. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish. members' sentiments are 42 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against 'Sheeple' buying high and selling low.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 57.8 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 61.91. (Chart Here) Below support, looking bad. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 70.40. (Chart Here) Below support, but slowing.

The Market Is Overpriced But The Correction Will Likely Be Shallow Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -53.57. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different - where have I heard this before? Tuesday's (8-5) numbers are definitely not a good sign, but today's numbers show improvement. Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 65.91. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Today's numbers are bullish in that the support 65.35 has held.

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

"Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett


If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16449 up 81 or 0.49%.

The SP500 is at 1919 up 9 or 0.47%.

SPY is at 191.94 up 0.91 or 0.48%.

The $RUT is at 1127 up 7 or 0.62%.

NASDAQ is at 4348 up 13 or 0.30%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3866 up 9 or 0.22%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 16.41 down 0.25 or -1.50%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

Crude Rebound Off of 3-month Lows

WTI oil is trading between 98.42 (resistance) and 97.20 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 97.37.

Brent Crude is trading between 106.85 (resistance) and 104.69 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 104.83.

Gold fell from 1324.10 earlier to 1307.64 and is currently trading up at 1312.50. The current intra-session trend is down and sideways.

Dr. Copper is at 3.176 rising from 3.160 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.67 and 81.31 and is currently trading up at 81.45, the bias is currently down and volatile.


Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary


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