Market Commentary: Afternoon Session Melt-off Disappoints Tuesday Session Lovers

July 29th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market close

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 07-29-2014

Well, so much for 'Tuesday up day' as the markets closed mostly down; it had to end someday. Today's markets displayed a weakness so many pundits have been writing and warning about. Interesting to see it up front and personal, but I do not believe this market is ready to roll over just yet.

By 4 pm the averages, mainly the large caps, were displaying distinct signs of an aging bull market, but not so much as to run put and sell everything. Caution: watch for reversals!

Follow up:

The BTFDers were out, but so were the bears as the final minutes ran out on the clock. Tomorrow is the Fed Day and it seems there are a lot of folk that are not so sure the news from Ms. Yellen is going to be good, hence the afternoon sell-off.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 7.98. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period. members' sentiments are 54 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 66.3 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 70.33. (Chart Here) S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 82.40. (Chart Here) Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -37.47. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.76. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range and has NOT really broken down and through - yet!)

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 16912 down 70 or -0.42%.

The SP500 is at 1970 down 9 or -0.45%.

SPY is at 196.76 down 0.85 or -0.43%.

The $RUT is at 1142 up 2 or 0.19%.

NASDAQ is at 4443 down 2 or -0.05%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3959 down 8 or -0.21%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.32 up 0.76 or 6.05%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 101.81 (resistance) and 100.40 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 100.89.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.05 (resistance) and 107.16 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, but very volatile and is currently trading down at 107.63.

Gold fell from 1314.43 earlier to 1298.29 and is currently trading down at 1301.90. The current intra-session trend is depressed with a positive slant.

Dr. Copper is at 3.220 falling from 3.254 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.33 and 81.08 and is currently trading up at 81.31, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.


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Written by Gary








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