Market Commentary: Yawn, Markets Down, BTFD, We Have Seen This Movie Before

July 25th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 07-25-2014

So what the markets are down nearly 1%, they will bounce back up on Tuesday won't they? Have to admit this looks like another BTFD day having seen this countless number of times over the past several years. So far the BTFDers have been right, but I am afraid their day of reckoning is near.

By noon the markets were down, volume moderate, the $VIX is climbing and it is almost time for my afternoon nap.

Follow up:

Nothing to see here, keep moving. . .

Oil Spikes, Stocks Dump As Van Rompuy Gives Green Light To Extend Russian Sanctions To Oil

Curious why Brent just spiked by over 1% (and the S&P500 took a leg lower)? The reason is headlines from Reuters citing Europe's [unelected] dictator, Van Rompuy who has said that sanctions should include Oil technology.

However, in a hilarious twist, the [unelected Muppet] of Europe's insolvent banks, hopes to get his sanctions, cake and snort Russia's gas too, adding that Europe's sanctions should exclude the gas sector.


Here it appears that Europe's unelected leaders are somehow deluding themselves that if faced with escalating sanctions, Russia will not unilaterally cut off the gas to Europe.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 9.80. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period. shows a 88 % buy. (Been at 88% for the last 8 sessions, I think their meter is broken) members' sentiments are 58 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 67.1 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Chart Here ) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 71.23. (Chart Here) S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 82.60. (Chart Here) Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -14.83. (Chart Here) Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.84. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, "As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy." (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have crossed the support, let's see where this goes from here.

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16948 down 136 or -0.80%.

The SP500 is at 1978 down 10 or -0.50%.

SPY is at 197.70 down 0.96 or -0.48%.

The $RUT is at 1145 down 11 or -0.95%.

NASDAQ is at 4444 down 28 or -0.63%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3957 down 26 or -0.65%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.33 up 0.49 or 4.14%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net positive and the current bias is negative.

Cushing Drawdown Not A Concern For The Oil Market by Hard Assets Investor

WTI oil is trading between 102.49 (resistance) and 101.00 (support) today. The session bias is neutral, volatile and is currently trading down at 101.65.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.20 (resistance) and 106.74 (support) today. The session bias is positive, volatile and is currently trading down at 107.81.

Gold: Drops To 1-Month Low Below $1300 by Dean Popplewell

Gold rose from 1291.19 earlier to 1299.36 and is currently trading down at 1298.30. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile.

Dr. Copper is at 3.241 falling from 3.277 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.14 and 80.90 and is currently trading up at 81.13, the bias is currently positive and volatile.

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Written by Gary

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