Weekend Market Commentary For 07-05-2014
UPDATED:1000 EST 2014-07-05
I do not see the market bear that others are seeing, please show me where I am wrong! The markets climbed to new highs this past week, Fed Chair Yellen doesn't see any problems and the $VIX has reached the lows last recorded in 2007.
What can possibly go wrong?
This FRED chart clearly shows the Index far from turning down and that the present bull run has not come close, so far, to turning around. Yes, there is a downturn in our future, but it isn't this year as many would have you to believe. So where are the bears all the doom and gloomer's are talking about?
Leading Index for the United States
Markets do turn around, but when is the next downturn coming? Given the sometime slow speed in which bull markets peak and turn down, we could be looking at mid 2015 or early 2016 before the bears are unleashed.
The chart in the article below show indicators implying we are most likely in late Stage 4 or early Stage 5 of the current business cycle and heading toward a business cycle peak and stock market peak which could start as early as 4th quarter 2014.
Intermarket Analysis & Business Cycle Investing
(See Chart Here) Evidence for Current Phase of the Business Cycle Chart
Your opinions are welcome and would love to hear yours.
WTI oil closed Friday at 103.76 (down -0.30 -0.29%)
Brent oil closed Friday at 110.60 (down -0.41 -0.36%)
Copper closed Friday at 3.270 (down -0.010 -0.30%)
Gold closed Friday at 1321.30 (up +0.70 +0.05%)
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Thursday's Market Numbers
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Written by Gary