Market Commentary: Markets Open Flat On Anemic Volume, Volatility Possible Today

July 2nd, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market open

Written by

Opening Market Commentary For 07-02-2014

Premarkets were up +0.12% prior to the good ADP Employment Change being higher than anticipated and dropped to +0.05%. Markets opened mixed with the large caps flat and in the red and then melting up into the green on anemic volume.

By 10 am the US Factory Orders came in at -0.5% lower than the -0.3% and the averages continued to languish on anemic volume, but remained in the green fractionally. Be alert for volatility in either direction.

Follow up:

Looks like any excitement is possibly being put off until tomorrow's financial payroll reports.

Despite strong ADP survey, investors hold back ahead of US payrolls figures

LONDON (AP) - Markets were fairly leaden-footed Wednesday after a strong U.S. private payrolls report, a day ahead of the early publication of official government data. ADP, a payroll processor, said U.S. businesses added 281,000 jobs last month.

That was up on the 179,000 recorded in the previous month and the 200,000 median forecast in the markets. The ADP survey suggests that Thursday's official government figures could also show a significant gain from May's tally of 217,000 jobs.

The government's nonfarm payrolls figures are being released a day earlier than usual because of U.S. Independence Day.

However, analysts were cautious as the ADP figures don't always tally with the government data. "This means upside risk to tomorrow's payroll report but please remember how the ADP is known for throwing the market off ahead of the official jobs report," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.33. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period. shows a 88 % buy. members' sentiments are 61 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 69.4 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction. (Click Here to see chart.) NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 74.34. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 83.60.

(Click on $BPNYA or $BPSPX to see chart based on yesterday's closing)

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on 'Bernankellen' vapor, use caution!

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 16967 up 11 or 0.07%.

The SP500 is at 1973 down 0.13 or -0.01%.

SPY is at 197.09 up 0.05 or 0.03%.

The $RUT is at 1204 down 1.52 or -0.13%.

NASDAQ is at 4459 up 0.36 or 0.01%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3896 up 2 or 0.06%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 11.12 down 0.03 or -0.27%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is flat.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 105.50 (resistance) and 104.61 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 104.70.

Brent Crude is trading between 112.41 (resistance) and 111.42 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 111.50.

Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones

Gold rose from 1322.22 earlier to 1329.96 and is currently trading down at 1327.70. The current intra-session trend is sideways, expect volatility.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.234 rising from 3.183 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.02 and 79.83 and is currently trading down at 79.97, the bias is currently positive, trending sideways.

Real Time Market Numbers



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Written by Gary


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