Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-23-2014
Action on the market front was so slow this afternoon (I know there is a joke here somewhere . . )! Anemic volume, lackluster action and really I do not believe investors have come back from the weekend.
By 4 pm everyone in the office yelled hallelujah and ran for the doors. The SP500 bumped up against Friday's closing numbers after melting up from the 1 pm lows and backtracked.
It will be interesting to see if tomorrow is an up day or continue to trade sideways.
"There's something going on in derivatives land," is the warning from ADM's Andy Ash and as Paul Mylchreest notes the relationship between VIX and SKEW suggests the options market is pricing in the possibility of a major market event.
The process enables professionals to maintain the illusion of calmness in VIX while hedging their positions (as they attempt to unwind as we have shown).
Whether this 'event' is a crash or melt-up is historically unclear but given the taper and the trend of the last few years, we suspect the former more likely that the latter.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 17.05. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 0 % hold. Investing.com members' sentiments are 60 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.5 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16937 down 10 or -0.06%.
The SP500 is at 1963 down 0.26 or -0.01%.
SPY is at 195.81 down 0.06 or -0.03%.
The $RUT is at 1185 down 3 or -0.29%.
NASDAQ is at 4369 up 1 or 0.01%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3805 up 3 or 0.07%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 10.98 up 0.13 or 1.20%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 107.36 (resistance) and 105.91 (support) today. The session bias is depressed and sideways and is currently trading up at 106.03.
Brent Crude is trading between 115.63 (resistance) and 113.87 (support) today. The session bias is depressed and sideways and is currently trading up at 114.02.
Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold fell from 1318.06 earlier to 1310.62, reversed direction, eased up to 1319.20 and is currently trading up at 1318.20. The current intra-session trend is sideways and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.140 rising from 3.107 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.46 and 80.31 and is currently trading up at 80.34, the bias is currently sideways and volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary