Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-16-2014
Markets closed on time and that is about the best I can say. The volume overall was low and nonexistent several time this afternoon and that worries me. SOS John Kerry is 'hinting' that boots-on-the-ground remains a possibility in Iraq, yet the markets didn't budge - interesting.
By 4 pm the averages were back in the green, closing on a spurt of BTFDers jumping in at the last minute. The large caps closed flat and the small caps closed up +0.10% and suspect the averages will slip again tomorrow morning like today. Be careful and don't get caught by a reversal.
Mentioned above that there may be US forces deployed to Iraq is now a real possibility.
If you like your boots on the ground, you can keep them - as long as they are Special Forces boots. Following promises that there would be no American "combat" 'boots on the ground', AP reports that President Obama is considering sending a small number of special forces to help the government in Baghdad.
According to the official rules of "boots-on-the-ground"-edness, CIA and Special Forces do not count so 'officially' no promises have been broken. It's not clear how quickly the special forces could arrive in Iraq; or whether they would remain in Baghdad or be sent to the nation's north.
With rumors of explosions rocking Baghdad airport, we suspect the former.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close and it appears we are back, once again in a sideways channel. However, the all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains above zero at 15.50. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % sell. (down from 0% hold this morning) Investing.com members' sentiments are 67 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 67.3 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16781 up 5 or 0.03%.
The SP500 is at 1938 up 2 or 0.08%.
SPY is at 194.30 up 0.16 or 0.08%.
The $RUT is at 1167 up 4 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ is at 4321 up 10 or 0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3780 up 4 or 0.12%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.65 up 0.47 or 3.86%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 107.01 (resistance) and 106.05 (support) today. The session bias is trending sideways and volatile and is currently trading down at 106.19.
Brent Crude is trading between 113.21 (resistance) and 112.23 (support) today. The session bias is trending sideways and is currently trading down at 112.98.
Maybe I'm Wrong - Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold Rebounds, And It Just Might Continue by Tim Iacono
Gold fell from 1285.11 earlier to 1270.77 and is currently trading down at 1272.20. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.048 rising from 3.024 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.81 and 80.51 and is currently trading down at 80.55, the bias is currently negative.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary