Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 06-02-2014
Markets open with new highs, fall off sharply and rise to new highs - can you pronounce Wall Street Manipulation? Seriously, if you trust this market . . .
By noon the 500 and the DOW climbed back up the slippery slope to garner new highs. The 500 climber to 1925.27 and the DOW at 16746.81 because the cause of the market turn around by posting new ISM data because of using incorrect data points. (Read Below)
Epic Fudge Fail: ISM Re-Releases May Data, Says Applied Wrong Seasonal Factor, Boosts Headline Print To 56
One can't make this up. Remember when the ISM' Holcombe explicitly said moments ago in its 10 am release that "The May PMI registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from April's reading of 54.9 percent".
Turns out he lied, and moments after the ISM released its data, it "realized" it had used a wrong seasonal adjustment factor.
Wait: one applies seasonal adjustments to survey data? Like for example when you responded "no" to whether orders are picking up, you really meant "yes" when adjusted for the seasons.
We can only imagine that the ISM received a very [unpleasant] phone call.
ISM CORRECTS MAY FACTORY INDEX TO 56 AFTER ADJUSTMENT ERROR
ISM INITIALLY REPORTED U.S. MAY FACTORY GAUGE FELL TO 53.2
S&P 500 ERASES LOSS AFTER ISM CORRECTS FACTORY DATA
In other words, blame the complete data revision on the warmer weather.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 12.74. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 48 % sell. Investing.com members' sentiments are 68 % bearish.
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The DOW at 12:30 is at 16738 up 21 or 0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1924 up 0.10 or 0.02%.
SPY is at 192.80 up 0.12 or 0.06%.
The $RUT is at 1130 down 5 or -0.40%.
NASDAQ is at 4232 down 10 or -0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3729 down 8 or -0.22%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 11.77 up 0.37 or 3.25%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 103.33 (resistance) and 102.23 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 102.24.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.84 (resistance) and 108.84 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 109.84.
Gold rose from 1241.17 earlier to 1250.48 and is currently trading down at 1244.50. The current intra-session trend is Negative, and very volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.162 rising from 3.120 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.71 and 80.43 and is currently trading up at 80.70, the bias is currently positive and very volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary