Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-12-2014
Markets didn't melt down as was suggested earlier in the session. Instead the averages continued to rise with the DOW again setting a new historic high mark of 16704 and the SP500 right behind just off 0.15 cents point from its high mark.
By 4 pm the DOW set a new historical closing high of 16695.85 and the SP500 set a new closing high of 1896.61. The SP500 came close to its old historic high, but the small caps are still below the 100 DMA and trading sideways. The bulls don't seem to care and the party is in full swing with risk off.
Lance Roberts wrote in his article today, Is The Market Consolidating Or Topping? I highly suggest you take the time to read it in full.
"There are two ways to look at stagnation in the markets. It is either a consolidation process that works off an overbought condition which leads to further advances, OR it is a topping process that leads to a market decline. Discerning which process is currently "in play" is critical for investor decision making.
Unfortunately, as is always the case with investing, we will never know with certainty in advance. It is only in hindsight that the always bullishly biased forecasts can either be vindicated or victimized."
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 6.65. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 32 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) Investing.com members' sentiments are 69 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16695 up 112 or 0.68%.
The SP500 is at 1897 up 18 or 0.97%.
SPY is at 189.85 up 1.83 or 0.97%.
The $RUT is at 1134 up 26 or 2.39%.
NASDAQ is at 4144 up 72 or 1.77%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3613 up 57 or 1.60%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 12.23 down 0.69 or -5.34%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 100.92 (resistance) and 99.98 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading sideways at 100.66.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.16 (resistance) and 107.40 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading sideways at 107.83.
Gold rose from 1278.38 earlier to 1304.00 and is currently trading down at 1296.00. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.144 rising from 3.084 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.97 and 79.84 and is currently trading up at 79.95, the bias is currently positive.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary