Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-07-2014
Watching the 'pump-n-dump' masters at work is always interesting and today's session is an example. If you can read this 'activity' a trader can make a lot of money when the volatility and market swings are in the range they were today. The problem is that it isn't good for investors or market health in general and is difficult to prove what may be criminal activity.
By 4 pm the averages made a last minute push to close the session at the daily high on moderate volume. The sessions of late become more worrisome as they fail to climb higher or fall - something has to give - and soon.
Throw out all the technical indicators and hope for the best as the large caps ignore the bearish trending of the small caps. It is also going to be interesting to see what happens to the markets when the QE finally ends, but we may see fireworks before then. In the meantime, watch the $RUT lead the rest of the averages into a bear market sooner rather than later. Another notable fact is today's total interest is about as high as the April 15th rebound. Is this a signal of a coming sell-off?
With market internals dismally weak and 967 of the Russell 2000 index's members down over 20% from their highs (a bear market).
. . . the question is: how long can they maintain the status quo thanks to a handful of big blue chips as levered longs attempt to stay solvent?
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at +5.81. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 80 % buy. (I am not so sure about this.) Investing.com members' sentiments are 60 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16519 up 118 or 0.72%.
The SP500 is at 1878 up 10.49 or 0.56%.
SPY is at 187.97 up 1.10 or 0.59%.
The $RUT is at 1109 up 0.54 or 0.05%.
NASDAQ is at 4068 down 13 or -0.32%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3546 down 10 or -0.28%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.40 down 0.40 or -2.90%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 100.98 (resistance) and 99.79 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and volatile and is currently trading down at 100.70.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.24 (resistance) and 106.97 (support) today. The session bias is positive and volatile and is currently trading up at 108.180.
Gold fell at an alarming rate from 1314.67 earlier to 1286.80 and is currently trading up at 1290.20. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.035 falling from 3.061 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.12 and 79.28 and is currently trading up at 79.27, the bias is currently trending up and very volatile.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary