Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-05-2014
By 4 pm the averages closed in the green on anemic volume most likely because of ill-gotten handiwork from the HFT algo computers.
Obvious to many investors this bad-boy, casino market is going anywhere soon. But, Mr. Market has a way of making fools of even the most astute and successful investor, still, I would be very cautious during this period of Ukraine unrest and negative market signals. This time IT IS different!
Here is an excellent analysis of the markets.
. . . this is the whole story of how I came to my scenario of a 10-20% correction in the stock market this summer, not just a simple Sell-in-May seasonal analysis.
And more to the point. . .
The Coppock Curve's message is straightforward: get out of the market and stay out until at least the first quarter of 2015.
After five years of upside, the old trading saw comes to mind: bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 6.84. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 40 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) Investing.com members' sentiments are 61% bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16531 up 18 or 0.11%.
The SP500 is at 1885 up 3.52 or 0.19%.
SPY is at 188.29 up 0.36 or 0.19%.
The $RUT is at 1126 down 2.50 or -0.22%.
NASDAQ is at 4138 up 14 or 0.34%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3605 up 17 or 0.49%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.24 up 0.33 or 2.56%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 100.42 (resistance) and 98.97 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 99.44.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.91 (resistance) and 107.06 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 107.65.
Gold rose from 1300.23 earlier to 1315.52 and is currently trading up at 1310.30. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.052 falling from 3.081 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.57 and 79.48 and is currently trading up at 79.54, the bias is currently sideways.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary