Market Commentary: Markets Closed Up, Small Caps Still Trending Down

April 30th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, market close

Written by

Closing Market Commentary For 04-30-2014

Fed meeting was a success/failure (pick the one that suits you) and created some volatility on moderate volume. Generally the averages melted up where the small caps were flat and green and the large caps were better off at +0.25%. I would have expected investors to jump all in or all out, but instead most are playing this one close to the chest and waiting for World events to unravel I believe. Interestingly, but not really important, the DOW made a new historical closing high while the NASDAQ is still trending downward over the last 2 months. Again, pick the trend that suits your playbook the best.

By 4 pm closed up on less than enthusiastic volume making a lot of investors wonder if we are really seeing a dying bull run. But, do not count Mr. Market out just yet as I have seen him pull off some surprising bullish moves in the past.

Follow up:

The Fed's have cause a lot of volatility after the minutes were released this afternoon. I guess if a vote was taken the bulls won - for today anyway.

Fed's Linguistic Tapering: Fewest FOMC Statement Words Since October

Everyone who thought today's FOMC statement would, like the Fed's own balance sheet, set a new all time high record in verbosity, has lost.

At 811 words, today's Fed message was 66 words shorter than the March one, and the "briefest" since October.

So first a reduction in the pace of flow, then the communication. All that's left is the rigged, manipulated market.

Fed Tapers $10 Billion, Says Economy, Consumer Demand "Picked Up"

Despite dismal data (or the potential for great escape velocity is around the corner data), major event risks, and a Treasury market that just won't buy the dream of recovery that they are selling . . .

the Fed stuck to its tapering guns... with a consensus $10bn taper...



Shifting from "the economy slowed due to weather..." to "consumer spending is rising more quickly" the Fed is in full consensus "everything's gonna be alright " mode.

This leaves the Fed buying $25bn a month of Treasuries and $20bn of MBS each month and facing the tough reality that their trillions did not generate enough momentum in the US economy to overcome some snow...

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 5.60. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although shows a 24 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) members' sentiments are 73% bearish.

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 4:00 is at 16581 up 45 or 0.27%.

The SP500 is at 1884 up 5.62 or 0.30%.

SPY is at 188.50 up 0.56 or 0.30%.

The $RUT is at 1127 up 6 or 0.54%.

NASDAQ is at 4115 up 11 or 0.27%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3582 up 8 or 0.22%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.41 down 0.30 or -2.19%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is elevated and flat.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 102.12 (resistance) and 99.37 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 99.78.

Brent Crude is trading between 109.36 (resistance) and 107.56 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 108.23.

Gold fell from 1297.27 earlier to 1285.15 and is currently trading up at 1291.10. The current intra-session trend is sideways and volatile.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.024 falling from 3.078 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.00 and 79.52 and is currently trading up at 79.57, the bias is currently down and sideways.

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Written by Gary


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