Written by Gary
Market Commentary For 04-28-2014
Premarkets were up this morning +0.50% but took a nose dive right after the markets opened to flat but in the green.
By 10 am the averages had melted back up to +0.45% starting what may be a volatile sea-saw trading session. The sudden melt-down this morning may have been a fluke with some one-source selling causing the decent. Who knows, it could have been an attempt at a pump-n-dump.
What is important to understand, it that we are in a zone of uncertainty that began at the end of February this year with sideways trading and a new historic high. It is not the time to be bullish and load up preconceived great deals, but on the other hand . . .
It is not a good idea to drop a bunch of inverse ETF's into your shopping cart for the simple reason Mr. Market may not be finished playing with us. Even the saying, 'Sell in May and go away' might not work out. I would be very cautious and alert.
Investors are hotly debating whether this five-year-old bull market can tack on more years of spectacular growth. But a strategist at RBS Capital Markets has a boldly simple prognosis for the years ahead: it would likely take a recession to stop this bull market.
After 30% gains in 2013, the S&P 500 index SPX +0.66% is up a mere 0.81% on an operating basis so far in this year. Given the fraught push forward in 2014, investors have approached the bull market with feelings of trepidation.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 3.90. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) Investing.com members' sentiments are 76 % bearish.
In looking at the 50 DMA, the current SP500 opened above that line and the small caps remain just above the 145 DMA. I can not see, as of right now where those MA's are rolling over to indicate any permanent bear run but the failing small caps are a real worry.
We have seen similar action at the beginning of Feb, 2014 when the SP500 went below the 100 DMA and actually touched the 145 DMA and then rebounded to set new historic highs in the beginning of this month.
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY correction could turn nasty in a heart beat.
I still believe that Mr. Market is STILL not through playing with us and even newer historical highs are a distinct possibility beyond what we have seen, mainly because the amount of bond buying the Fed still does on a monthly basis. For those who are hell-bent bears, this article, 5 Reasons Your Simple Bear Market Plans Could Backfire, should be required reading.
The longer 6 month outlook is now 35-65 sell and will remain bearish until we can see what the effects are in the Fed's 'Tapering' game plan and Russia's annexing game playing. Again, I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a lessor degree of reliability for the time being and watch what the Janet Yellen's Fed does over the next couple of months. The margin debt is very high and has been setting historic highs and as of Monday, 4-7-2014, it stands at $466 billion.
It is its ending of QE that worries me the most as many financial institution and emerging markets can not continue to push forward or upwards without the Fed's 'Market Viagra'. Even if the Fed reduces its purchases by $10 billion every month for the rest of 2014, the Fed will have acquired $320 billion more for its portfolio. Note, that in 2013, the Fed added more than $1.0 trillion in securities to its portfolio. The debt stands at 4 trillion and will be at 5 trillion by the time the taper is completed and that is one hell of a debt that 'someone' has to pay.
Several notes of negativity is that the margin debt for stock purchases is at an all time high and investors are worried about issues directly related to the Fed's tapering. They are considering this factor along with the Argentine Peso, South African Rand and Japan. And of course, China's defaulting businesses are dropping like flies. And now the Second Chinese Bond Company Defaults, First High Yield Bond Issuer. And now Another Chinese High Yield Bond Issuer Declares Bankruptcy.
The real story behind the current weakness is the US weak housing, layoffs and poor employment data, inventory reductions and soft economic outlook including a mediocre sales outlook. Just can not buy the optimism of the bullish pundits when it comes to politicians and our economy. We may never know how 'dark' our shadow banking is and there are too many lurking 'Black Swans' on the horizon to be as confident as some are.
The Best Stock Market Indicator Update says the market is tradable. The OEXA200R ended the week at 86%, down from 88% last weekend.
Of the three secondary indicators:
- RSI is POSITIVE (below 50).
- MACD is POSITIVE (black line below red).
- Slow STO is NEGATIVE (black line below red).
Is the Bull finally over? That's what a lot of traders are beginning to ask themselves right now. Two Bull / Bear indicators that I keep an eye on are the bank index (represented by $BKX) and NYSE Margin Debt, both shown below.
When people start missing payments on car loans and mortgages it indicates a serious underlying problem with the economy. Twice in the recent past, Feb. 5, 2007 and Jan. 31, 2011, a drop by the banks preceded a significant drop in the S&P by several months. The same occurred with Margin Debt in March 2000 and July 2007 (the caveat here is that Margin Debt data is always a month old).
My feeling is that we're entering the final euphoria phase of the five-year stock market bull, and I'll be watching warily for major resistance points in the coming months. One in particular will be when the Nasdaq reaches 5000, the same top as in year 2000, maybe by this June or July. I'm very surprised at how large this bubble has grown, fueled by the Fed's single-minded determination to support Wall Street. (. . . and I agree )
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The DOW at 10:15 is at 16480 up 119 or 0.73%.
The SP500 is at 1876 up 12 or 0.66%.
SPY is at 187.61 up 1.31 or 0.71%.
The $RUT is at 1132 up 9 or 0.76%.
NASDAQ is at 4110 up 34 or 0.84%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3567 up 33 or 0.95%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.98 down 0.08 or -0.57%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 4 sessions have been negative and the current bias is elevated and volatile.
WTI oil is trading between 101.51 (resistance) and 100.70 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 100.85.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.19 (resistance) and 108.72 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 108.91.
Gold fell from 1306.49 earlier to 1293.96 and is currently trading down at 1295.10. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.085 gaping down from 3.123 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.91 and 79.61 and is currently trading up at 79.75, the bias is currently positive.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary