Market Commentary: DOW Remains Off Triple Digits, Small Caps Were Off 1.50%

April 25th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 04-25-2014

The averages have continued to melt downwards in light of some poor 1st quarter financial reporting and the deteriorating situation in the Ukraine. Goldman's GDP forecast from 3% to 1% is also creating serious doubt in investors minds (read below).

By noon the averages had recovered somewhat off the morning lows, but a dismal close appears to be the trend for today's session.

Follow up:

The negative news keeps on coming.

Goldman's Q1 GDP Forecast: From 3.0% To 1.0% In Under Three Months

Overnight, four months after our prediction, the FDIC-backed hedge fund not only that, but so much more that even we were shocked, because from a Q1 GDP which Goldman had originally predicted was going to be 3% . . .

The crack team of economists - or is that team of economists on crack - lowered its Q1 GDP to, drumroll, 1%!

And that's in the aftermath of the stronger than expected Durable Goods reports. Because it's only logical that good news is bad news. And vice versa.

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 4.11. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although shows a 32 % buy. (Really?) members' sentiments are 68 % bearish.

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16385 down 116 or -0.70%.

The SP500 is at 1867 down 11 or -0.59%.

SPY is at 186.70 down 1.13 or -0.61%.

The $RUT is at 1129 down 16 or -1.39%.

NASDAQ is at 4094 down 55 or -1.32%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3546 down 45 or -1.25%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.20 up 0.88 or 6.61%. Neutral Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.

Oil Bull Lives Despite Record U.S. Inventories

WTI oil is trading between 102.04 (resistance) and 100.52 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 100.79.

Brent Crude is trading between 110.61 (resistance) and 109.28 (support) today. The session bias is negative and volatile and is currently trading down at 109.50.

Gold rose from 1290.42 earlier to 1305.06 and is currently trading up at 1301.40. The current intra-session trend is elevated, but sideways.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.121 rising from 3.105 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.87 and 79.74 and is currently trading up at 79.81, the bias is currently sideways.

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Written by Gary


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