Market Commentary: Averages Trim Some Morning Losses, Further Weakness Seen

April 11th, 2014
in Gary's blogging, midday post

by Gary

Midday Market Commentary For 04-11-2014

For a while I thought the averages might actually recover and start posting green numbers, but alas, by 11:30 the averages started to roll over again as volume starts to fall off.

By noon, the general trend was sideways, but off the morning lows and the $VIX remained in the mid 16's. Further weakness is foreseen, but water-falling is not being suggested.

Follow up:

We may have seen the worst of this correction, but BoA seems to think another one is on its way. I am not saying the markets could not drop another percentage or two, but a full blown bear market doesn't seem to fit the current pattern.

A bigger 10%-15% correction is coming this autumn: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

In the wake of a big bashing for stock markets this week, BofA's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett is singing a bit of Bachman Turner Overdrive, which is, that the big stock market correction is not now, but later.

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding.

The important DMA's, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although shows a 8 % buy. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.)

If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the 'Follow' button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 16094 down 76 or -0.47%.

The SP500 is at 1827 down 6 or -0.32%.

SPY is at 182.64 down 0.53 or -0.28%.

The $RUT is at 1122 down 6 or -0.53%.

NASDAQ is at 4044 down 9 or -0.22%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 4586 down 2 or -0.06%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 16.41 up 0.52 or 3.27%. Bearish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is depressed, but trading sideways.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 104.26 (resistance) and 103.02 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 104.20.

Brent Crude is trading between 107.83 (resistance) and 106.99 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 107.78.

Gold fell from 1324.17 earlier to 1315.90 and is currently trading up at 1318.80. The current intra-session trend is negative.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.037 falling from 3.078 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.63 and 79.43 and is currently trading down at 79.49, the bias is currently negative.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary


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