Closing Market Commentary For 04-01-2014
It has been difficult to figure out what Mr. Market and the HFT algo computers have up their sleeve lately. Earlier this afternoon I thought the market was going to head down after a feeble attempt to test the new highs on the SP500, but no, it started to melt back up on low volume and set a newer historical high on the SP500 (1885.84). That, my friends, is how the HFT computers move the market through manipulation tactics. I would be seriously be on guard as this could turn out to be a cruel April First Joke. The caution flags are waving again.
Absolutely amazing how the market manipulators work - don't they know after all the negative press regarding HFT we are watching? And yet the SP500 sets a new record breaking historic high. I have an uneasy feeling that we just witnessed the top.
Japanese data (double) miss, check!
Chinese data miss, check!
US data miss, check!
Investor trust in US equity at record lows, check!
All-time record highs for US equities - you betcha!
Stocks broadly pumped and dumped once again today but the start-of-the-month exuberance over April's seasonality was enough to leave gains that accelerated into the close as the long-bond sold off and short-end rallied (biggest 2-day steepening in 5 months).
USDJPY was in charge for much of the day but when it went limp in the last hour, it was VIX-clubbing time (to 10-week lows ahead of the ECB and NFP?) Oil prices slumped intraday (back below $100) as gold slipped but copper and silver flat-lined.
Wondering what fueled today's panic buying spree? "Most shorted" stocks tripled the market's performance on the day...
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close, but that could change overnight. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 100 % sell. (Remember this has been negative like this for days.)
What is important today is that the SP500 made new highs (by 1.87 points) and set a new closing high of 1885.52. These new lines in the market sand box would be more than valid if the volume was significant, which it wasn't. Plus the DOW never reached its morning high and the oils have fallen significantly. Not exactly what I would call a bull run - stay tuned.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16533 up 75 or 0.46%.
The SP500 is at 1885.52 up 13 or 0.70%.
SPY is at 188.316 up 1.26 or 0.67%.
The $RUT is (Not reporting)
NASDAQ is at 4268 up 69 or 1.64%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3658 up 63 or 1.74%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.10 down 0.78 or -5.62%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 101.45 and 99.32 today. Falling below 100 after the stock market closed. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 99.36.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.81 and 105.12 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.17.
Gold rose from 1278.33 earlier to 1288.37 and has reversed course falling to 1278.13 and currently trading down at 1280.50. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.038 rising from 3.018 earlier. (Prices are volatile and swinging between 3.018 and 3.042)
The US dollar is trading between 80.13 and 80.28 and is currently trading up at 80.24, the bias is currently positive, but volatile.
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Written by Gary