Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 03-31-2014
Markets sailed along in the afternoon session just like they did in the morning. Investors and pundits alike are wondering if the averages can keep climbing upward as the sledding appears to be tougher than usual.
By the 4 pm closing bell, Mr. Market left the building without any parting words. Today's party ended well and no one got hurt - so far, but then there is always tomorrow. The session with some active trading, but that didn't effect today's outcome any, but I remain VERY cautious. Maybe concerned is a better word.
I am seriously edgy lately as all of the classic 'quiet before the storm' signals are getting to be more pronounced and decided to ease a bit more cash out of the market today. How are you fixed for a cash position?
The more we chop around in the region we have been within the last several months, the more I hear analysts claiming that we are "correcting in time," rather than in price. This pattern seems to be lulling many into believing that we are developing a high-level consolidation, which most know as a form of a triangle. But quite often, these triangles break down, and open a trap door which most will not be expecting. The question is if this is one of those times.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The MACD has turned down slightly, but remains above zero. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 72 % sell.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16458 up 135 or 0.82%.
The SP500 is at 1872 up 15 or 0.79%.
SPY is at 186.84 up 1.52 or 0.82%.
The $RUT is at 1173 up 21 or 1.84%.
NASDAQ is at 4199 up 43 or 1.04%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3596 up 24 or 0.68%.
$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 13.88 down 0.53 or -3.68%. Neutral Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways bit elevated.
WTI oil is trading between 100.89 and 101.90 today. The session bias is mixed and volatile and is currently trading down at 101.52.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.06 and 108.32 today. The session bias is mixed and volatile and is currently trading down at 107.74.
Gold fell from 1299.09 earlier to 1282.97 and is currently trading up at 1283.70. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.029 falling from 3.049 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.50 and 80.12 and is currently trading up at 80.25, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary