Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-18-2013
Magic market numbers were reached today and lets begin by saying they are as phoney as Kourtney Kardashian's fake-a-boob job. They look good up front but they are nothing but silicone finances pushed up by no other than maestro Ben and his wizardly Keynesian monkeys.
The markets closed subdued on negative remarks made earlier by Carl Icahn. Only the DOW remained in the green as most of the major averages posed significant losses. But are we on a downward path to stock market Armageddon?
I am not saying the markets won't, or can't, continue upwards, I am saying there are those that believe it will continue to climb and it may. The key word here is 'believe', like 'hopium', it is like theological virtue which in most cases it is an opinion. Markets continuing to rise is a thought process built on a belief, not necessarily based on the reality of the situation.
Reuters reported earlier that the famed investor Icahn was warning that equity markets could have a drop in the near future. Many investors obviously felt the same way and his comments account for the sudden decline in the equity.
Carl Icahn, who is currently speaking at the Reuters Global Investment Outlook Summit, just poured cold water over the Fed's 16,000 DJIA EOD price target.
ICAHN: 'VERY CAUTIOUS ON EQUITIES, MARKET COULD EASILY HAVE BIG DROP'
ICAHN SAYS MANY COS. EARNINGS ARE A 'MIRAGE,' REUTERS SAYS
ICAHN: DOESN'T WANT FIGHT WITH APPLE,NO PLANS TO WALK AWAY
But... but.. two POMOs... Still, not too late for K-Fed and his merry unlimited balance sheet trading men to pull a record third POMO today and keep the "wealth effect" illusion going.
Was it just a month ago that we warned "Carl Icahn's nightmare" was about to occur? - as the credit market became saturated...
Our proprietary indicators are very much in the negative side at the close. As these markets go higher the more negative they get and it is not a market I want to go long in.
The short term indicators are still leaning towards the sell side at the closing mark, but I would again advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15976 up 14 or 0.09%.
The SP500 is at 1791 down 6.65 or -0.37%.
SPY is at 179.38 down 0.63 or -0.35%.
The $RUT is at 1107 down 8.91 or -0.80%.
NASDAQ is at 3949 down 37 or -0.93%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3389 down 34 or -0.98%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is sideways after falling substantially.
WTI oil is trading between 94.92 and 93.40 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 93.59.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.72 and 107.54 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 108.21.
Gold fell from 1284.49 earlier to 1269.57 and is currently trading up at 1273.90.
Dr. Copper is at 3.150 down from 3.178 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.86 and 80.60 and is currently trading down at 80.70, the bias is currently bullish.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary