Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-14-2013
Markets melted upwards in a sea-saw fashion and closed at new highs on low to moderate volume. The QEeen Yellen Effect is still charging the markets with dovish 'Hopium' and the 'sheeples' are buying into it. Heaven help them when this house of cards collapses.
We really haven't talked much about a 'Santa Claus' rally, but when one looks at the reality of the financial status of the US and the EZ, it isn't a pretty picture. It is hard to imagine this casino to continue climbing forever.
Despite the U.S. stock market's seemingly never-ending climb to record highs, investors shouldn't bet on a fifth-straight year end rally, chart watchers say.
Based on an old Wall Street adage - as the financials go, so goes the market - technicians believe the S&P 500 index could decline over the last two months of the year for the first time since the Lehman Bros. crisis, with losses potentially accelerating to more than 10% early next year.
And the S&P 500 Financials index has been under-performing the S&P 500 by a wide margin the last five months.
The short term indicators are still leaning modestly, down from heavy this morning, towards the sell side at the closing bell, but I would HIGHLY advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15876 up 55 or 0.35%.
The SP500 is at 1791 up 8.62 or 0.48%.
SPY is at 179.28 up 0.89 or 0.50%.
The $RUT is at 1111 down 0.74 or -0.07%.
NASDAQ is at 3973 up 7 or 0.18%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3415 up 9.58 or 0.28%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.42 and 92.52 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 93.95.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.96 and 108.93 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 108.18.
Gold rose from 1277.99 earlier to 1293.32 and is currently trading up at 1286.90.
Dr. Copper is at 3.165 falling from 3.182 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.27 and 80.92 and is currently trading down at 81.03, the bias is currently negative.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary