Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-12-2013
Another non-committal session closes just below the historical market high for the large caps as they did practically nothing except slide sideways. Volume was low to moderate as the bulls and bears battled it out trying to guess which way Mr. Market is going to go.
By 4 pm the large caps were in the red and the small caps eased up into the green, but remaining flat. Tomorrow's financial reporting is going to be light and like today, will not have much input to Mr. Markets decision to move one way or another. It is amazing how many investors are taking up long positions in face of an uncertain market future. Well, investor, do you feel lucky?
I can't see the averages moving up through the resistance until the Fed makes their move, assuming there is not going to be a taper in December. So that leaves a continuation of the sideways shuffle dance to proceed without interruption for several weeks more. I have not forgotten about that sinister unforeseen 'black swan' coming in to roost. The economy, in my opinion, is NOT strong enough to withstand a financial Armageddon, even a small one.
The short term indicators are still leaning towards the sell side at the closing bell, but I would advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15751 down 32 or -0.21%.
The SP500 is at 1768 down 4.20 or -0.24%.
SPY is at 177.03 down 0.36 or -0.20%.
The $RUT is at 1101 down 0.03 or 0.00%.
NASDAQ is at 3920 up 0.13 or 0.00%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3365 up 2.25 or 0.07%.
The longer trend is up, the past 12 months trend is bullish, the past 10 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 95.21 and 92.88 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 93.11.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.02 and 105.29 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.82.
Gold fell from 1284.50 earlier to 1250.51 and is currently trading down at 1267.80. The current bias is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.222 falling from 3.254 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.54 and 81.07 and is currently trading down at 81.21, the bias is currently sideways.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary