Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 11-11-2013
The trading zone was extremely narrow during the afternoon session with the SP500 staying withing 2 points and the DOW 16 points. Volume wasn't really all that low during most of the afternoon session and picked up towards the end which is surprising for the lack of volatility and narrow range.
Brent climbed a bit, gold and copper traded sideways and the US dollar slipped slightly. I am as curious as you are in which way the market is going. Personally, I think it 'should' be melting down, but I am not going to bet on it.
The short term indicators are leaning, barely, towards the sell side by 4 pm, but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, investors really do not know what to do. Having said that, I would take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt.
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell in my opinion while the Barchart is again calling a 100% sell on the long term and 88% sell on the medium term. I can't be that bearish in light of what the Fed may or may not do.
If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top or even something over a 2 percent market rise would be a good signal.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15783 up 21 or 0.14%.
The SP500 is at 1772 up 1.28 or 0.07%.
SPY is at 177.27 up 0.03 or 0.02%.
The $RUT is at 1102 up 1.53 or 0.14%.
NASDAQ is at 3920 up 0.56 or -0.01%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3363 down 3.86 or -0.11%.
The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 10 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 95.37 and 94.12 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 95.08.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.12 and 106.29 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 106.27.
Gold rose from 1278.53 earlier to 1286.99 and is currently trading sideways at 1282.60.
Dr. Copper is at 3.257 falling from 3.268 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.41 and 81.13 and is currently trading down at 81.14, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary