Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 11-08-2013
Markets, particularity the SP500, tried in vain to penetrate the resistance line that keeps the averages from going higher.
By noon the averages had posted new highs for today's session, but not enough to move into the bull's territory. Again the HFT computer were mostly responsible for the melt up as volume has been falling steadily from the mornings session. The day isn't over and excellent possibility remains for the averages to decline significantly - but, as usual, that is just a guess.
Whether it is the conference board, Gallup, Bloomberg, or pretty much any other measure of the economic confidence or consumer comfort in the US, the numbers have been falling (or plunging) despite the incessant rise of US equities.
The reason this is of particular note, as we have discussed previously, is that this pattern of exuberant highs in stocks with fading confidence-inspiration has ominous overtones for future performance... (especially for those hoping for [more] multiple expansion).
The UMich data this morning merely confirms the trend with the lowest print since Dec 2011 (3 misses in a row).
This is the biggest miss since Feb 2006!
The short term indicators are leaning heavily towards the sell side this afternoon, but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, I would take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt. The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell.
If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top.
The DOW at 12:45 is at 15685 up 91 or 0.58%.
The SP500 is at 1763 up 16 or 92%.
SPY is at 176.47 up 1.55 or 0.89%.
The $RUT is at 1099 up 19 or 1.81%.
NASDAQ is at 3911 up 53 or 1.39%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3358 up 37 or 1.10%.
The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 9 sessions have been sideways with a negative slant and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 93.90 and 94.69 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 94.33.
Brent Crude is trading between 102.99 and 104.89 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading sideways at 104.64.
Gold fell from 1313.36 earlier to 1281.07 and is currently trading down at 1285.00.
Dr. Copper is at 3.256 rising from 3.225 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.72 and 81.57 and is currently trading down at 81.34, the bias is currently sideways with a positive slant.
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Written by Gary