Market Commentary: DOW Sets New High, Then Craters With Other Averages

November 7th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, market open

Written by

Opening Market Commentary For 11-07-2013

Premarkets were up +0.30% and slipped a bit after the mixed financial reports this morning. US Gross Domestic Product was sailing at 2.8% over the prior 2.5%, but the US Personal Consumption sunk at 1.5% below the last report of 1.8%. (Never mind the GDP number as it will undergo a number or revisions, and we're already nearly halfway through Q4). The commodities are all over the place with Brent collapsing (-1.09%) and the US dollar sky rocketing (+0.90%), these too, I expect to resume normal trading soon.

Markets gaped up again this morning, bearish, with the DOW reaching a new historical high (15797.68) while the small caps turned in negative numbers at the onset on low to moderate volume. From the opening the averages generally started melting down from the resistance level that has been tested, sniffed at and ignored for the past 8 sessions.

Follow up:

By 10 am the markets were mostly in the red with the DOW falling dramatically off its morning highs with the other averages following along on moderate red volume. Morning gaps were covered and and the session outlook is in doubt.

The short term indicators are leaning heavily towards the sell side this morning, but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, I would take just about any indicator with a grain of salt. The longer outlook remains 40-60 sell however.

If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Perhaps we have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'!

The DOW at 10:15 is at 15737 down 8 or -0.05%.

The SP500 is at 1764 down 7 or -0.38%.

SPY is at 176.54 down 0.60 or -0.34%.

The $RUT is at 1091 down 7 or -0.68%.

NASDAQ is at 3895 down 37 or -0.95%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3352 down 33 or -0.98%.

The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is negative.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 95.30 and 93.91 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 94.08.

Brent Crude is trading between 105.23 and 103.89 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 104.03.

Gold fell from 1325.28 earlier to 1297.77 and is currently trading up at 1310.40.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.238 falling from 3.257 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.51 and 81.54 and is currently trading up at 81.28, the bias is currently positive.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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