Market Commentary: Averages Fall From Morning Highs On Moderate Volume

November 7th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Midday Market Commentary For 11-07-2013

The averages fall this morning looked bad but in reality it never dropped below Tuesday of this weeks low. Just another correction for getting too close to the upper resistance as some investors got cold feet and decided to jump ship. The markets have been trading in a very narrow channel for the past 8 sessions and it remain to be seen if Mr. Market is going to bite the bullet and descend this week or wait until March, 2014.

By noon the $NDX was down over 1% and the high flying DOW settled in at -0.15%. The rest of the session looks weak and suspect we will see another down day.

Follow up:

There is nothing in the following article I haven't said myself, but maybe coming from another source it may carry more weight.

Days of Stock Market Irrationality Numbered

. . . the days of stock market irrationality are numbered and eventually, reality will strike key stock indices. My take is that the longer the stock market rally continues, the bigger the fall is going be. Stock prices have skyrocketed and investors have taken on too much leverage. A little market correction can lead to a much bigger sell-off. Be very careful with the stock market!

The short term indicators are leaning heavily towards the sell side this afternoon, but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, I would take just about any indicator with a grain of salt. The longer outlook remains 40-60 sell however.

If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Perhaps we have seen the top - but I wouldn't count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out 'Market Viagra'!

The DOW at 12:15 is at 15726 down 21 or -0.14%.

The SP500 is at 1764 down 7 or -0.38%.

SPY is at 176.54 down 0.63 or -0.33%.

The $RUT is at 1091 down 7 or -0.68%.

NASDAQ is at 3896 down 35 or -0.90%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3353 down 32 or -0.93%.

The longer trend is up, the past 6 months trend is bullish, the past 8 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 95.30 and 93.81 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 94.30.

Brent Crude is trading between 105.23 and 103.52 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 103.86.

Gold fell from 1325.28 earlier to 1297.77 and is currently trading down at 1309.10.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.248 falling from 3.257 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.51 and 81.54 and is currently trading down at 81.08, the bias is currently positive.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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