Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 11-04-2013
Today's overall trend is down, however it has been trending back up over the past hour. This may just be a sea-sawing and will continue to melt down later in the session. The volume is anemic to light with few investors willing to gamble in this market casino.
By noon the $VIX has been steadily moving down into the low 13's, the DOW and the $NDX are showing red while the $RUT is solidly in the green at +0.70%. The HFT computers appear to be the only ones trading while the rest of us lean back and wait.
Bubbles, bubbles everywhere!
In a stunning series of lies, damned lies, and twisted statistics, the Fed's Jim Bullard unleashed a torrent of self-agrandizing comfort-speak on CNBC this morning.
From his comment that "bubbles, such as housing and dot-com, were blindingly obvious at the time," despite Bernanke's (and Greenspan's) insistence at the time that they were not to his comments about the size of Fed Treasury holdings (and monetization) as being "average" based on some statistic, the Fed president gave himself one more out as he admonished:
*BULLARD SAYS FED DOESN'T WANT TO SUPPORT 'FISCAL RECKLESSNESS'
Oh no, you'd never want to do that... With an administration lying to the American people's face over Obamacare and now the even more powerful Fed incapable of the truth, what hope is there that anyone gets out of this debacle in tact.
The short term indicators are leaning heavily towards the sell side but because of the Fed's reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin, I would take anything I hear with a grain of salt. Again, should we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014 the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future particularly at the beginning of January.
A 'Santa Clause' rally is still a possibility, but financial numbers out there are still pointing to a weak economy that could be derailed easily and send the markets plunging.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 15603 down 13 or -0.08%.
The SP500 is at 1764 up 2 or 0.13%.
SPY is at 176.39 up 0.19 or 0.10%.
The $RUT is at 1104 up 8 or 0.76%.
NASDAQ is at 3931 up 9 or 0.24%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3382 up 3 or 0.07%.
The longer trend is up, the past year trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and mixed and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.08 and 95.10 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading down at 94.59.
Brent Crude is trading between 105.57 and 105.12 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 105.86.
Gold rose from 1310.86 earlier to 1322.17 and is currently trading up at 1317.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.252 falling from 3.308 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.01 and 80.60 and is currently trading up at 80.66, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary