Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 10-29-2013
The SP500 plowed ahead today and made new historical highs, the DOW surged ahead of its historical high making a triple top and the small caps lagged behind.
Just before the market closed the BTFDers jumped in with abandon and sent the large caps beyond their previous historical highs but looks suspiciously like the quiet before the storm.
The SP500 is making new historical highs and that should be great news, exciting news. Everyone in their right mind should be jumping on board right this fast traveling bull train? So why is the volume trailing off, small caps flat or in the red most of the day and the DOW can't push through a triple top resistance at 15683?
The short answer is everyone is waiting for the Fed, at the next FOMC meeting, stating that they are going to continue handing out free ice cream or market Viagra as it is also known. If so, I would imagine the normal reaction would be for the averages to charge ahead and set new highs, but like a lot of investors, I am not so sure this bull run is sustainable for much longer - stay tuned.
The longer answer is, well, longer and full of caveats.
The market is in a bubble.
The markets are being manipulated.
The markets are too high.
The charts do not fully support going higher.
Too much QE.
Not enough growth in the US or elsewhere.
China's faltering economy.
What if the Fed starts tapering?
Etc, etc . . .
Remember, the greater the manipulation of financial markets and continuing financial repression, the more violent the 'reset' will be. The bottom line here is when the 'Great Fall' begins the market 'reset' is going to blow your investing socks off.
Resets occur when the price of everything that has been repressed, manipulated or obscured is repriced.
The greater the manipulation and financial repression, the more violent the reset.
What been manipulated, obscured or repressed? Virtually everything: risk, credit, assets, labor, currency, you name it.
Everything that has been manipulated by central banks and central states will be repriced. Trust is difficult to price. Every reset erodes trust in the capacity of the centralized status quo to manipulate/repress price to its liking.
Once trust in the system is lost, it cannot be purchased at any cost.
The short term indicators are at 50-50 this morning making the morning untradeable. Later in the session the short term indicators moved into the sell zone, but not by very much and should be considered suspect. The talk on the street is that the taper Fed WILL NOT happen and the rumor is that they will actually increase it from current levels. This will push the markets to an even higher unrealistic levels.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15680 up 111 or 0.72%.
The SP500 is at 1772 up 10 or 0.56%.
SPY is at 177.21 up 0.94 or 0.53%.
The $RUT is at 1122 up 4 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ is at 3952 up 12 or 0.31%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3392 up 9 or 0.27%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 98.51 and 97.87 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading up at 98.22.
Brent Crude is trading between 109.47 and 108.57 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 108.84.
Gold fell from 1360.21 earlier to 1340.36 and is currently trading up at 1345.00.
Dr. Copper is at 3.280 rising from 3.246 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.35 and 79.72 and is currently trading down at 79.69, the bias is currently positive.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary