Market Commentary: Markets Riding High On US Debt Solution Optimism

October 16th, 2013
in Gary's blogging, midday post

Written by

Opening Market Commentary For 10-16-2013

The averages by noontime has more or less settled into a sideways consolidation mode awaiting confirmation of a debt solution deal between the waring US law makers.

The markets are enjoying plus 1 percent gains for the day as optimism has not swayed much since this morning 'Hopium' euphoria took hold. Savvy investors are still very much in reaction mode hoping to push the buy/sell button correctly when the time come.

Follow up:

Most understanding investors know October 17 is not the drop dead date for US default and we just may see the US sliding past that deadline tomorrow. What a profit-making session that could be for alert traders. Then watch it swing the other way when it corrects.


So, what is going on? Why is enough money coming into the market while the Options Liquidity (30 day expectation) was negative yesterday?

It is about Washington ... the GOP knows the real "drop dead" date is not tomorrow. However, many investors think it is October 17th. and may react accordingly. The U.S. really runs out of cash somewhere between October 22, and November 1st.

What makes the November 1st. the last possible "drop dead" date? It is when the Government won't have any more money to write any Social Security checks.

As of yesterday, the Options market had the opinion that there would be no agreement by October 17th., so this is could be a rough ride with a possible 8%+ market drop in the coming days if things don't change quickly.

The DOW at 12:00 is at 15358 up 190 or 1.25%.

The SP500 is at 1720 up 22 or 1.29%.

SPY is at 171.99 up 2 or 1.35%.

The $RUT is at 1091 up 11 or 1.05%.

NASDAQ is at 3836 up 42 or 1.12%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3280 up 35 or 1.09%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 100.78 and 102.42 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 102.09.

Brent Crude is trading between 109.06 and 110.81 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 110.39.

Gold fell from 1287.17 earlier to 1269.19 and is currently trading down at 1272.50.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.309 rising from 3.264 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.37 and 80.85 and is currently trading up at 80.81, the bias is currently positive.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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