Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 10-03-2013
Premarkets were down ~-0.10% and climbed up to where they opened at about where we closed yesterday. From there the averages started to melt downward, partially because of an increase of continuing claims, on moderate volume.
By 10 am the markets melted down ~ -0.60% and started the usual sea-saw which will most likely start to melt back up as it has done in the previous sessions. Predictable, but not certain as volatility and volume remain elevated.
This is the 3rd. day of the partial US government shutdown and the markets have been well behaved so far. From here I suspect Mr. Market will start to show signs of irritability and volatility which is good for traders, but not much for LOTTO winners wondering where to stash their winnings. (Yes, I have hoped of that.)
The consensus is that the SP500 will drop to and test the support starting at 1653 being that is the most likely and obvious place on the charts. The long term indicators have moved from 50-50 and unreliable, to 60% sell and needs to be watched carefully as the current US financial situation starts to deteriorate. The short term has remained at 55% becoming a 80% sell increasing as the shutdown continues.
If you are in a strong cash position, I would consider remaining there for the time being and see how the negotiations are progressing in the shutdown.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15007 down 122 or -0.80%.
The SP500 is at 1679 down 15 or -0.86%.
SPY is at 167.77 down 1.40 or -0.84%.
The $RUT is at 1070 down 12 or -1.15%.
NASDAQ is at 3782 down 33 or -0.86%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 104.37 and 103.50 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 103.93.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.69 and 109.84 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 109.72.
Gold fell from 1318.34 earlier to 1302.29 and is currently trading down at 1312.70.
Dr. Copper is at 3.282 falling from 3.324 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.00 and 79.83 and is currently trading up at 79.90, the bias is currently neutral with a positive slant.
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Written by Gary