Market Commentary: Markets Open Down On Government Uncertainties

October 2nd, 2013
in Gary's blogging, market open

Written by

Opening Market Commentary For 10-02-2013

Premarkets were down -0.80% as investors are still concerned about the ramifications of the government shutdown, the debt ceiling and of course whether the Fed is going to start the 'Taper' this month.

Markets opened down -0.60% on higher than usual volume and leaving small gaps. The DOW took the greatest hit descending 120 points while the NASDAQ was rising from its opening lows.

By 10 am all of the averages were under heavy selling pressure and descending quickly to lower levels. Is this going to be the morning lows and hopefully we will see a recovery later today?

Follow up:

The gaps made this morning are somewhat bullish in that we may see the markets recover to yesterday's closing numbers - maybe! That is the only good news at this early hour.

The tea leaves and other sundry short term indicators still show sell in the high percentage levels. The longer term indicators are still out to lunch at 50-50 and are not reliable. Buying an inverse ETF at yesterday's close would have been the right thing to do, but it required some guessing and willingness to lose a few bucks if you are incorrect. And that is how this market has been.

FoxNews celebrated this morning headlining the US private sector added 166K new jobs in September without noting that this was a BIG MISS from the 180K expected. Such is expected from the news media I am afraid.

Only Payroll Indicator In Shutdown Week Disappoints As ADP Misses, Follows Large Downward Revisions

With the BLS shutdown, and this Friday's NFP report indefinitely delayed, the only labor report this week would be the (highly inaccurate) anticipated ADP Private Payrolls data.

Moments ago it came, and disappointed all those hoping that finally, after five years, the Fed's shotgun wealth creation strategy may be working.

When it not only missed expectations of 180K, instead printing at 166K with the bulk of jobs created in the service-providing sector, but excluding massive [downward] revisions (July from 198K to 161K, August from 176K to 159K), would have been the lowest print of the past 4 months.

And while, finally, some 1000 manufacturing jobs were created in September, for the first time in over a year the high-paying financial sector saw an exodus of 4000 jobs.

Wave goodbye to the "third half" 2013 recovery.

The DOW at 10:15 is at 15053 down 137 or -0.88%.

The SP500 is at 1681 down 14 or -0.81%.

SPY is at 167.99 down 1.36 or -0.80%.

The $RUT is at 1078 down 9 or -0.86%.

NASDAQ is at 3795 down 23 or -0.59%.

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been bearish and the current bias is bearish.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 101.43 and 102.49 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 102.47.

Brent Crude is trading between 107.45 and 108.43 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 107.88.

Gold rose from 1278.23 earlier to 1314.76 and is currently trading up at 1313.00.

Here's why copper has lost its indicator role

Dr. Copper is at 3.285 rising from 3.249 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 80.38 and 79.87 and is currently trading up at 79.96, the bias is currently negative.

To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:


Written by Gary


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