Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-25-2013
Just after my noon commentary, Mr. Market took a 'dip-a-do' down and tested the morning lows, melting back up a fraction and finishing the session down ~-0.25%.
Markets closed down, flat and lackluster as the bulls wait for the tooth fairy. Again, like yesterday, the DOW headed the percentage loss list on low to moderate volume. This bull market looks tired and weak with no Geritol in sight.
The 'dip-a-do' this afternoon completely screwed up my plans to buy an inverse ETF, such is timing unfortunately. Although today's miss is not much of a loss at the whole point spread on the SP500 was about 9 points and one would have to be one hell of a crystal ball reader to guess the tops and bottoms of today's session.
Watching the market numbers just before the close wasn't much help as the ETF shorting possibilities were negated earlier in the session leaving one to wonder what was going to happen tomorrow.
The short term indicators moved to the high side (85%) in instances like this, however this casino market is full of surprises and today was no exception. Today will not go down as a great trading session.
As of 4 pm, the short term indicators are showing a 60% to 85% sell and a 15% to 20% buy. Long term remains 50-50 and not a reliable forecasting tool.
Another day, another POMO pump followed by a collapse to close at the the lows as the S&P 500 has its first 5-day negative closing run in 2013.
Only the NASDAQ remains above Un-Taper levels with the Dow back below 'Summers' levels and the S&P heading that way. Treasury yields slid further (-4 to 5bps) to 7-week lows (down 10 of the last 11 days) as the 7Y broke back below 2.00%.
Gold and Silver rallied (after the ubiquitous opening smackdown idiocy) with both positive on the week now. The USD sold off as JPY strengthened to the week's highs and EUR pushed back to unchanged on the week.
WTI was slammed lower (in a seeming mirror of the PMs) ending back at $102.28 (-2.4% on the week) nearly 11 week lows.
For the second day in a row VIX closed lower as stocks sold off (unwinding hedges and reducing underlying exposure perhaps?)
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15273 down 61 or -0.40%.
The SP500 is at 1693 down 4.65 or -0.27%. (2nd day close below 1700)
SPY is at 169.05 down 0.49 or -0.29%.
The $RUT is at 1073 down 1 or -0.11%.
NASDAQ is at 3761 down 7 or -0.19%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3208 down 10 or -0.31%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been down and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is trading between 102.20 and 103.95 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading up at 102.27.
Brent Crude is trading between 107.90 and 110.08 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 107.94.
Gold is trading between 1316.68 and 1338.32 and is currently trading up at 1333.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.272 rising from 3.253 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.38 and 80.74 and is currently trading down at 80.43, the bias is currently sideways.
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Written by Gary