Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 09-24-2013
Trading in this market is like playing Monopoly with Ben Bernanke. He has all the money and is giving it to all the players EXCEPT you!
Markets closed with the large caps taking it on the chin and the small caps mixed and flat. The SP500 closed below 1700 and according to BofAML that is a bearish signal. (Read article below)
This is serious accusation on the part of Mr. Robert Benmosche, although I have to agree with his conclusion, but I don't think I would have used lynchings as the basis of my dissertation.
As if you needed any more evidence of how disconnected, entitled, irrational and sociopathic the heads of financial firms in America are these days, along comes AIG's CEO Robert Benmosche to dispel any lingering doubts.
In a highly disturbing interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Benmosche compares the murder of black people in the deep south based on racial prejudice and hate to the vast majority of Americans expressing disgust with the fact that Wall Street decided to suspend capitalism when it was in their best interests in order to give themselves trillions of dollars.
He actually compares an environment where the rule of law was often completely suspended to allow the murder of a disenfranchised racial group, to widespread public anger about the suspension of the rule of law to benefit the wealthiest, most connected people in the nation.
Trading today's market has been an exercise in futility. Even if you were to guess correctly the bottom and buy and then guess correctly again the session top, there would only be an average +0.25% swing for the day - that is awful. Plus, who would be in their right mind to want to hold overnight.
The short term sell indicators are at 65% to 75% sell and the buy indicator is at 20% to 25%. Longer term indicators remain at 50-50 and are considered unreliable, trade accordingly.
The SP500 did, in fact, close below 1700 today and my indicators have been printing out with 60% to 80% sell signals and only 20% to 25% buy. Stay tuned for the rest of the weeks action, going to be interesting for sure. When the $VIX reaches 17 that will be time to worry.
Risk assets remain under pressure, BofAML's MacNeill Curry warns and with equities vulnerable to a deeper correction, a close below 1700 (on the S&P 500) would confirm a near-term top and a correction to 1653 (the 10-month trendline support).
This morning's action is very much focused on the 1,700 level with this latest rebound not being seen in Treasury yields which continue to push lower (driven by VIX on POMO excitement).
As Curry adds, Treasury yields should continue their downside correction with 2.668% as interim support but sees 2.46% as possible.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 15334 down 67 or -0.43%.
The SP500 is at 1697.42 down 4.42 or -0.26%.
SPY is at 169.68 down 0.40 or -0.24%.
The $RUT is at 1075 up 2.55 or 0.24%.
NASDAQ is at 3768 up 3 or 0.08%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3218 down 0.68 or -0.02%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 3 sessions have been down and the current bias is bearish.
WTI oil is trading between 103.64 and 102.30 today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading up at 103.34.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.89 and 107.44 today. The session bias is bullish and is currently trading up at 108.78.
Gold fell from 1329.34 earlier to 1306.14 and is currently trading up at 1323.50.
Dr. Copper is at 3.263 fell from 3.295 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.74 and 80.52 and is currently trading up at 80.69, the bias is currently positive.
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary