Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 09-09-2013
The sideways dance was in full swing until noon when some moron put out strong positive data from China and japan. The Indices move upwards +0.05% to where the DOW was up 122.00 points.
By 12:15 it appeared that news wasn't enough to resume the bullish run we have been so accustom to. The volume spike from the BTFDers was very short lived and the averages became soft once again and melting more slowly upwards.
The lies, fraud and crooked manipulation of financial numbers, especially from Asia, comes this bit. If you believe this hooey, then I will have no sympathy when you loose your shirt.
The blue-chip average is rallying 101 points, or 0.68%, as traders cheer strong data from China and Japan, and several upbeat corporate reports. The broader S&P 500 is up by the same margin on a percent basis, led by materials, tech and industrial shares.
If you didn't read this article this morning, you should read it now
Unconventional monetary policies of the Fed et al. are having distortionary effects on asset markets and increasing their inherent instability. Via a mathematical framework, that has been empirically shown to accurately model bubbles, and give a prediction for when they will ultimately come to an end, Variant Perception (VP) investigates the S&P 500 today.
The framework suggests a window of time within which the S&P will experience a 'regime change', which may involve a steep price drawdown. Using this framework, VP predicts this regime change will occur any time between now and the beginning of Q413.
Furthermore, based on a suite of indicators for the S&P which point towards overbought and overvalued conditions with a backdrop of complacency and divergent market internals, VP forecast any regime change to resolve itself through a - potentially steep - market drawdown. Remaining long is an ugly wager.
For the second week in a row the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Confirm "Untradeable". Our long term indicators are in neutral while the shorter term have swung towards the sell side at 80% sell and 20% buy. The Syrian conflict issues and the Fed tapering are still foremost in investors minds and should keep the markets moving along more or less sideways until 'something' is resolved. In the meantime keep your hands in your pockets.
The DOW at 12:30 is at 15043 up 120 or 0.81%.
The SP500 is at 1667 up 12 or 0.74%.
SPY is at 167.21 up 1 or 0.70%.
The $RUT is at 1040 up 11 or 1.03%.
NASDAQ is at 3694 up 35 or 0.95%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3162 up 29 or 0.93%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been slightly positive and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 110.44 and 109.58 today. The session bias is sideways and is currently trading down at 109.34.
Brent Crude is trading between 116.17 and 114.17 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 113.57.
Gold rose from 1382.03 earlier to 1390.43 and is currently trading down at 13886.20.
Dr. Copper is at 3.279 rising from 3.246 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 82.32 and 81.95 and is currently trading up at 81.75, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary